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605169.SS$11.74-1.26%
Fair $11.74+0.0%

605169.SS

Xinjiang Hongtong Natural Gas Co., Ltd.

Utilities / Utilities - Regulated GasShanghai

$11.74

-0.15 (-1.26%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $11.74Fund rank 30/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 42/C
F-Score: 5/9
Margin Compression

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 32% · confianza 23%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $93.1M · quality 50.3/100

Data gap 30/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 30/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

42/100

C

Piotroski

5/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists. Operating margin has declined for 3 consecutive years
Thesis & Journal · 605169.SSLocal privado en este navegador · Xinjiang Hongtong Natural Gas Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$3.3B

P/E

30.9x

↑

EV/EBITDA

10.0x

↑

ROE

6.1%

↑

Gross Margin

11.6%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.05

↓
52-Week Range$12
$11$22

TradingView lightweight chart

605169.SS price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $11.74Periodo -31.0%
Fair value: $11.74

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+29.6%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

3.0%

FCF / Net income

0.77x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $3.13B · net income $121.6M · FCF $93.1M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

11.6%-14.7% pts

Operating margin

4.9%-9.7% pts

Net margin

3.9%-7.3% pts

FCF margin

3.0%+9.8% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$3.13B$3.13B$2.75B$1.88B$1.44B
Net Income$121.6M$121.6M$173.1M$153.1M$160.7M
EBITDA$290.0M$290.0M$347.4M$285.0M$285.4M
EPS0.440.440.620.540.57
Gross Margin11.6%11.6%15.6%20.3%26.3%
Operating Margin4.9%4.9%7.9%10.2%14.5%
Net Margin3.9%3.9%6.3%8.1%11.2%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.050.050.100.140.13
Current Ratio2.802.80———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$93.1M$93.1M$117.7M$89.3M$-98.5M
Returns
ROE6.1%6.1%8.9%8.4%9.3%
Valuation
P/E30.8930.8915.4221.3219.82
EV/EBITDA10.0110.015.859.499.24
P/B1.621.621.381.801.84
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth13.6%13.6%46.2%31.2%—
EPS Growth-29.0%-29.0%14.5%-4.7%—
Dividend Yield2.1%2.1%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

33.3%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.04

Spread vs growth

-62.3%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

23.4%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.26

Spread vs growth

-52.5%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

16.5%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$2.03

Spread vs growth

-45.6%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +7.1%

Total return

+7.1%

Start / end P/E

18.0x → 26.7x

EPS bridge

0.62 → 0.44

Residual

-13.9%

EPS growth-29.0%
Multiple rerating+48.0%
Dividend+2.1%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-13.9%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.