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7808.T$2631.00-1.76%
Fair $2631.00+0.0%

7808.T

C.S. Lumber Co., Inc

Basic Materials / Lumber & Wood ProductionTokyo

$2631.00

-47.00 (-1.76%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $2631.00Fund rank 35/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 32/D
F-Score: 3/9
Declining RevenueMargin Compression

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 25% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $2.1B · quality 73.3/100

Data gap 35/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 76/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

32/100

D

Piotroski

3/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 2unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists. Revenue has declined for 3 consecutive years Operating margin has declined for 3 consecutive years
Thesis & Journal · 7808.TLocal privado en este navegador · C.S. Lumber Co., Inc
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$4.9B

P/E

5.0x

↓

EV/EBITDA

4.6x

↓

ROE

10.3%

↑

Gross Margin

21.0%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.90

↑
52-Week Range$2631
$2583$3505

TradingView lightweight chart

7808.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $2,631Periodo +17.0%
Fair value: $2,631

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-6.3%

FCF CAGR

-13.9%

FCF margin

10.4%

FCF / Net income

1.86x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $20.67B · net income $1.16B · FCF $2.16B

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

21.0%-4.7% pts

Operating margin

8.6%-7.6% pts

Net margin

5.6%-5.4% pts

FCF margin

10.4%-3.0% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$20.67B$20.67B$21.13B$24.55B$25.13B
Net Income$1.16B$1.16B$1.44B$2.24B$2.77B
EBITDA$2.19B$2.19B$2.55B$3.62B$4.44B
EPS625.99625.99776.111208.301498.06
Gross Margin21.0%21.0%22.2%23.7%25.7%
Operating Margin8.6%8.6%10.3%13.2%16.2%
Net Margin5.6%5.6%6.8%9.1%11.0%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.900.900.810.901.05
Current Ratio0.950.95———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$2.16B$2.16B$2.01B$2.09B$3.38B
Returns
ROE10.3%10.3%14.0%24.9%40.2%
Valuation
P/E5.005.004.352.552.53
EV/EBITDA4.564.563.692.322.09
P/B0.430.430.610.631.02
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-2.2%-2.2%-13.9%-2.3%—
EPS Growth-19.3%-19.3%-35.8%-19.3%—
Dividend Yield3.0%3.0%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

-28.0%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$233.46

Spread vs growth

8.7%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

-14.7%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$282.48

Spread vs growth

-4.6%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

-3.1%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$454.94

Spread vs growth

-16.2%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -4.6%

Total return

-4.6%

Start / end P/E

3.7x → 4.2x

EPS bridge

776.11 → 625.99

Residual

-2.8%

EPS growth-19.3%
Multiple rerating+14.5%
Dividend+3.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-2.8%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.