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8444.TWO$4.67-6.60%
Fair $4.67+0.0%

8444.TWO

Green River Holding Co. Ltd.

Basic Materials / Lumber & Wood ProductionTaipei Exchange

$4.67

-0.33 (-6.60%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $4.67Fund rank 22/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 0/F
F-Score: 1/9
High DebtLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 13%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-234.1M · quality 35.3/100

Data gap 22/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 34/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

0/100

F

Piotroski

1/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 2unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific holding-company NAV/SOTP model required: targets are disabled until look-through holdings, debt and discount data exists. Debt-to-Equity ratio is 16.64, above the 2.0 threshold ROE is -2.9%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 8444.TWOLocal privado en este navegador · Green River Holding Co. Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$517M

P/E

N/A

•

EV/EBITDA

N/A

•

ROE

-285.8%

↓

Gross Margin

-10.9%

↓

Debt/Equity

16.64

↑
52-Week Range$5
$5$22

TradingView lightweight chart

8444.TWO price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $4.670Periodo -78.1%
Fair value: $4.670

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-4.9%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-12.6%

FCF / Net income

0.37x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $3.26B · net income $-1.10B · FCF $-409.8M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

-10.9%-21.5% pts

Operating margin

-26.6%-15.9% pts

Net margin

-33.9%-13.1% pts

FCF margin

-12.6%-1.0% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$3.26B$3.26B$4.88B$4.65B$3.79B
Net Income$-1.10B$-1.10B$-887.7M$-622.4M$-787.3M
EBITDA$-186.4M$-186.4M$38.7M$298.0M$-195.1M
EPS——-8.88-6.98-8.82
Gross Margin-10.9%-10.9%10.9%10.3%10.6%
Operating Margin-26.6%-26.6%-4.6%-4.3%-10.7%
Net Margin-33.9%-33.9%-18.2%-13.4%-20.8%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity16.6416.646.534.193.80
Current Ratio0.060.06———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-409.8M$-409.8M$-118.5M$-234.1M$-439.0M
Returns
ROE-285.8%-285.8%-88.0%-41.1%-46.1%
Valuation
EV/EBITDA——247.1830.51—
P/B1.341.343.122.122.03
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-33.3%-33.3%4.9%22.9%—
EPS Growth——-27.2%20.9%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -77.3%

Total return

-77.3%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

-8.88 → n/d

Residual

-77.3%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-77.3%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.