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8613.T$1043.00+0.87%
Fair $1043.00+0.0%

8613.T

Marusan Securities Co., Ltd.

Financial Services / Capital MarketsTokyo

$1043.00

+9.00 (+0.87%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $1043.00Fund rank 30/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 52/C
F-Score: 6/9

Book/ROE base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · P/B n/d

Book/ROE base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 100% · confianza 20%

Book/ROE escenarios

weak_data · book/share n/d · quality 23.0/100

Data gap 30/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 29/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

52/100

C

Piotroski

6/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); financial Book/ROE targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 8613.TLocal privado en este navegador · Marusan Securities Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$69.2B

P/E

13.8x

↑

EV/EBITDA

9.0x

↓

ROE

7.7%

↑

Gross Margin

99.7%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.04

↓
52-Week Range$1043
$843$1120

TradingView lightweight chart

8613.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $1,043Periodo +122.9%
Fair value: $1,043

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+0.3%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-5.9%

FCF / Net income

-0.29x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $18.85B · net income $3.79B · FCF $-1.10B

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

99.7%+0.1% pts

Operating margin

18.8%+1.6% pts

Net margin

20.1%+5.0% pts

FCF margin

-5.9%+0.2% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$18.85B$18.85B$18.61B$14.93B$18.67B
Net Income$3.79B$3.79B$2.92B$778.0M$2.83B
EBITDA$4.03B$4.03B$4.15B$901.0M$3.72B
EPS57.2157.2144.4411.8542.49
Gross Margin99.7%99.7%99.7%99.6%99.6%
Operating Margin18.8%18.8%19.9%2.6%17.3%
Net Margin20.1%20.1%15.7%5.2%15.1%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.040.040.060.070.09
Current Ratio1.731.73———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-1.10B$-1.10B$6.99B$10.64B$-1.14B
Returns
ROE7.7%7.7%5.6%1.7%6.0%
Valuation
P/E13.8213.8222.8635.6111.53
EV/EBITDA9.019.017.38-2.862.10
P/B1.411.411.270.600.69
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth1.3%1.3%24.6%-20.0%—
EPS Growth28.7%28.7%275.0%-72.1%—
Dividend Yield4.4%4.4%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

17.4%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$92.55

Spread vs growth

11.3%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

14.4%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$111.98

Spread vs growth

14.4%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

12.2%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$180.35

Spread vs growth

16.6%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +26.9%

Total return

+26.9%

Start / end P/E

19.2x → 18.2x

EPS bridge

44.44 → 57.21

Residual

-1.4%

EPS growth+28.7%
Multiple rerating-4.9%
Dividend+4.4%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-1.4%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.