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8614.T$597.00-1.97%
Fair $597.00+0.0%

8614.T

Toyo Securities Co., Ltd.

Financial Services / Capital MarketsTokyo

$597.00

-12.00 (-1.97%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $597.00Fund rank 27/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 45/C
F-Score: 5/9

Book/ROE base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · P/B n/d

Book/ROE base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 100% · confianza 20%

Book/ROE escenarios

weak_data · book/share n/d · quality 11.0/100

Data gap 27/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 16/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

45/100

C

Piotroski

5/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); financial Book/ROE targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 8614.TLocal privado en este navegador · Toyo Securities Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$40.5B

P/E

10.3x

↓

EV/EBITDA

39.4x

↑

ROE

8.8%

↑

Gross Margin

97.4%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.41

↑
52-Week Range$597
$445$802

TradingView lightweight chart

8614.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $597.00Periodo +157.3%
Fair value: $597.00

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+1.3%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

4.6%

FCF / Net income

0.20x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $11.29B · net income $2.65B · FCF $518.0M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

97.4%-1.8% pts

Operating margin

6.2%+5.1% pts

Net margin

23.5%+15.4% pts

FCF margin

4.6%+66.6% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$11.29B$11.29B$12.02B$8.34B$10.86B
Net Income$2.65B$2.65B$1.30B$-2.96B$875.0M
EBITDA$912.0M$912.0M$1.29B$-1.65B$568.0M
EPS34.4534.4516.36-37.18—
Gross Margin97.4%97.4%98.1%97.7%99.2%
Operating Margin6.2%6.2%9.5%-26.0%1.1%
Net Margin23.5%23.5%10.9%-35.4%8.1%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.410.410.250.300.41
Current Ratio1.531.53———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$518.0M$518.0M$2.95B$-2.89B$-6.73B
Returns
ROE8.8%8.8%3.3%-8.6%2.3%
Valuation
P/E10.3010.3021.27——
EV/EBITDA39.4239.429.77—-2.47
P/B1.531.530.700.760.30
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-6.1%-6.1%44.2%-23.2%—
EPS Growth110.6%110.6%144.0%——
Dividend Yield8.2%8.2%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

15.4%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$52.97

Spread vs growth

95.2%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

13.2%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$64.10

Spread vs growth

97.4%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

11.6%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$103.23

Spread vs growth

99.0%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +40.9%

Total return

+40.9%

Start / end P/E

27.5x → 17.3x

EPS bridge

16.36 → 34.45

Residual

-40.9%

EPS growth+110.6%
Multiple rerating-37.0%
Dividend+8.2%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-40.9%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.