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8616.T$707.00+2.91%
Fair $707.00+0.0%

8616.T

Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings, Inc.

Financial Services / Capital MarketsTokyo

$707.00

+20.00 (+2.91%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $707.00Fund rank 23/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 42/C
F-Score: 5/9
High Debt

Book/ROE base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · P/B n/d

Book/ROE base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 100% · confianza 20%

Book/ROE escenarios

weak_data · book/share n/d · quality 23.0/100

Data gap 23/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 33/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

42/100

C

Piotroski

5/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific holding-company NAV/SOTP model required: targets are disabled until look-through holdings, debt and discount data exists. Debt-to-Equity ratio is 3.85, above the 2.0 threshold
Thesis & Journal · 8616.TLocal privado en este navegador · Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings, Inc.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$179.4B

P/E

10.8x

↓

EV/EBITDA

49.0x

↑

ROE

6.1%

↓

Gross Margin

96.4%

↑

Debt/Equity

3.85

↑
52-Week Range$707
$457$832

TradingView lightweight chart

8616.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $707.00Periodo +192.1%
Fair value: $707.00

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+2.2%

FCF CAGR

+130.1%

FCF margin

21.0%

FCF / Net income

1.64x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $86.33B · net income $11.05B · FCF $18.15B

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

96.4%-0.3% pts

Operating margin

13.6%+1.4% pts

Net margin

12.8%-3.4% pts

FCF margin

21.0%+19.2% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$86.33B$86.33B$89.20B$73.38B$80.97B
Net Income$11.05B$11.05B$10.19B$1.95B$13.15B
EBITDA$15.64B$15.64B$19.03B$6.72B$13.07B
EPS43.9243.9240.697.84—
Gross Margin96.4%96.4%97.2%94.8%96.6%
Operating Margin13.6%13.6%17.2%4.3%12.2%
Net Margin12.8%12.8%11.4%2.7%16.2%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity3.853.853.573.074.34
Current Ratio1.271.27———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$18.15B$18.15B$8.36B$104.19B$1.49B
Returns
ROE6.1%6.1%5.7%1.1%7.6%
Valuation
P/E10.8010.8013.8146.43—
EV/EBITDA49.0449.0436.1171.5257.48
P/B0.980.980.780.530.57
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-3.2%-3.2%21.6%-9.4%—
EPS Growth7.9%7.9%419.0%——
Dividend Yield5.8%5.8%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

12.6%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$62.73

Spread vs growth

-4.7%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

11.6%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$75.91

Spread vs growth

-3.6%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

10.8%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$122.25

Spread vs growth

-2.8%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +57.9%

Total return

+57.9%

Start / end P/E

11.4x → 16.1x

EPS bridge

40.69 → 43.92

Residual

+3.2%

EPS growth+7.9%
Multiple rerating+40.9%
Dividend+5.8%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+3.2%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.