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8617.T$540.00+1.12%
Fair $540.00+0.0%

8617.T

The Kosei Securities Co., Ltd.

Financial Services / Capital MarketsTokyo

$540.00

+6.00 (+1.12%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $540.00Fund rank 30/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 32/D
F-Score: 1/9
Low Profitability

Book/ROE base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · P/B n/d

Book/ROE base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 100% · confianza 20%

Book/ROE escenarios

weak_data · book/share n/d · quality 0.0/100

Data gap 30/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 20/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

32/100

D

Piotroski

1/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); financial Book/ROE targets are disabled until manually verified. ROE is -3.0%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 8617.TLocal privado en este navegador · The Kosei Securities Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$5.1B

P/E

24.2x

↑

EV/EBITDA

N/A

•

ROE

-3.0%

↓

Gross Margin

97.5%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.02

↓
52-Week Range$540
$397$603

TradingView lightweight chart

8617.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $540.00Periodo -69.0%
Fair value: $540.00

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+7.9%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-305.2%

FCF / Net income

3.64x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $556.0M · net income $-466.0M · FCF $-1.70B

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

97.5%+0.6% pts

Operating margin

-93.3%+12.3% pts

Net margin

-83.8%-36.0% pts

FCF margin

-305.2%-57.4% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$556.0M$556.0M$1.50B$433.0M$443.0M
Net Income$-466.0M$-466.0M$377.0M$-397.0M$-212.0M
EBITDA$-458.0M$-458.0M$496.0M$-438.0M$-399.0M
EPS-49.41-49.4139.93-42.11-22.51
Gross Margin97.5%97.5%96.7%96.8%96.8%
Operating Margin-93.3%-93.3%29.3%-113.4%-105.6%
Net Margin-83.8%-83.8%25.2%-91.7%-47.9%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.020.020.020.020.03
Current Ratio2.572.57———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-1.70B$-1.70B$770.0M$370.0M$-1.10B
Returns
ROE-3.0%-3.0%2.2%-2.6%-1.3%
Valuation
P/E24.2524.2518.81——
EV/EBITDA——1.64——
P/B0.320.320.420.250.28
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-62.8%-62.8%245.3%-2.3%—
EPS Growth-223.7%-223.7%194.8%-87.1%—
Dividend Yield1.9%1.9%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +34.9%

Total return

+34.9%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

39.93 → -49.41

Residual

+33.0%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+1.9%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+33.0%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.