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8628.T$948.00-0.94%
Fair $948.00+0.0%

8628.T

Matsui Securities Co., Ltd.

Financial Services / Capital MarketsTokyo

$948.00

-9.00 (-0.94%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $948.00Fund rank 16/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 35/D
F-Score: 4/9
High Debt

Book/ROE base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · P/B n/d

Book/ROE base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 100% · confianza 20%

Book/ROE escenarios

weak_data · book/share n/d · quality 53.0/100

Data gap 16/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 0/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

35/100

D

Piotroski

4/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); financial Book/ROE targets are disabled until manually verified. Debt-to-Equity ratio is 4.48, above the 2.0 threshold
Thesis & Journal · 8628.TLocal privado en este navegador · Matsui Securities Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$244.2B

P/E

15.8x

↑

EV/EBITDA

N/A

•

ROE

13.7%

↑

Gross Margin

N/A

•

Debt/Equity

4.48

↑
52-Week Range$948
$677$1007

TradingView lightweight chart

8628.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $948.00Periodo +85.9%
Fair value: $948.00

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+5.0%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-126.6%

FCF / Net income

-4.48x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $37.16B · net income $10.50B · FCF $-47.03B

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

—— pts

Operating margin

—— pts

Net margin

28.3%-7.4% pts

FCF margin

-126.6%-274.6% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$37.16B$37.16B$35.31B$28.46B$32.10B
Net Income$10.50B$10.50B$9.79B$7.82B$11.44B
EPS40.7140.7137.9930.3744.44
Net Margin28.3%28.3%27.7%27.5%35.6%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity4.484.483.633.402.40
Current Ratio1.121.12———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-47.03B$-47.03B$-11.47B$-18.99B$47.51B
Returns
ROE13.7%13.7%12.8%10.2%14.5%
Valuation
P/E15.8015.8021.2725.7218.79
P/B3.193.192.732.632.73
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth5.3%5.3%24.0%-11.3%—
EPS Growth7.2%7.2%25.1%-31.7%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

27.4%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$84.12

Spread vs growth

-20.2%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

20.1%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$101.78

Spread vs growth

-13.0%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

14.9%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$163.92

Spread vs growth

-7.8%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +34.7%

Total return

+34.7%

Start / end P/E

18.5x → 23.3x

EPS bridge

37.99 → 40.71

Residual

+1.8%

EPS growth+7.2%
Multiple rerating+25.7%
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+1.8%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.