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9516.SR$30.00-3.23%
Fair $30.00+0.0%

9516.SR

Natural Gas Distribution Company

Utilities / Utilities - Regulated GasSaudi

$30.00

-1.00 (-3.23%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $30.00Fund rank 37/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 58/C
F-Score: 5/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 24% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $8.4M · quality 74.3/100

Data gap 37/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 70/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

58/100

C

Piotroski

5/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists.
Thesis & Journal · 9516.SRLocal privado en este navegador · Natural Gas Distribution Company
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$150M

P/E

19.6x

↑

EV/EBITDA

11.4x

↑

ROE

11.9%

↑

Gross Margin

7.5%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.12

↓
52-Week Range$30
$21$49

TradingView lightweight chart

9516.SR price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $30.00Periodo -60.5%
Fair value: $30.00

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+17.9%

FCF CAGR

+99.2%

FCF margin

6.8%

FCF / Net income

1.32x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $149.0M · net income $7.6M · FCF $10.1M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

7.5%-1.2% pts

Operating margin

2.8%-1.4% pts

Net margin

5.1%+1.5% pts

FCF margin

6.8%+5.4% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$149.0M$149.0M$109.9M$92.5M$91.0M
Net Income$7.6M$7.6M$3.8M$3.8M$3.3M
EBITDA$12.7M$12.7M$9.1M$4.2M$10.2M
EPS——0.750.750.66
Gross Margin7.5%7.5%7.8%9.5%8.8%
Operating Margin2.8%2.8%2.4%3.2%4.2%
Net Margin5.1%5.1%3.4%4.1%3.6%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.120.120.110.150.15
Current Ratio1.081.08———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$10.1M$10.1M$6.8M$8.4M$1.3M
Returns
ROE11.9%11.9%6.4%6.5%5.8%
Valuation
P/E19.6119.6188.0056.6786.52
EV/EBITDA11.4211.4235.7948.7128.02
P/B2.332.335.573.665.01
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth35.6%35.6%18.9%1.6%—
EPS Growth——0.0%13.6%—
Dividend Yield1.9%1.9%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -24.9%

Total return

-24.9%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

0.75 → n/d

Residual

-26.8%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+1.9%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-26.8%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.