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9539.T$1349.00-0.81%
Fair $1349.00+0.0%

9539.T

Keiyo Gas Co., Ltd.

Utilities / Utilities - Regulated GasTokyo

$1349.00

-11.00 (-0.81%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $1349.00Fund rank 24/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 44/C
F-Score: 5/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 18%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-697.0M · quality 43.7/100

Data gap 24/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 6/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

44/100

C

Piotroski

5/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists. ROE is 3.2%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 9539.TLocal privado en este navegador · Keiyo Gas Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$43.4B

P/E

13.5x

↓

EV/EBITDA

3.2x

↓

ROE

3.2%

↓

Gross Margin

32.0%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.28

↓
52-Week Range$1349
$1077$1428

TradingView lightweight chart

9539.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $1,349Periodo +169.8%
Fair value: $1,349

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-0.3%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-0.6%

FCF / Net income

-0.22x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $117.67B · net income $3.21B · FCF $-697.0M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

32.0%+2.5% pts

Operating margin

3.3%+3.2% pts

Net margin

2.7%+2.5% pts

FCF margin

-0.6%+3.5% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$117.67B$117.67B$115.70B$122.85B$118.76B
Net Income$3.21B$3.21B$1.62B$1.46B$219.0M
EBITDA$15.28B$15.28B$12.93B$12.10B$10.19B
EPS——50.4945.416.82
Gross Margin32.0%32.0%30.2%29.6%29.4%
Operating Margin3.3%3.3%1.2%1.4%0.0%
Net Margin2.7%2.7%1.4%1.2%0.2%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.280.280.260.280.32
Current Ratio1.681.68———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-697.0M$-697.0M$-6.21B$15.32B$-4.86B
Returns
ROE3.2%3.2%1.7%1.6%0.3%
Valuation
P/E13.5113.5117.5319.42112.96
EV/EBITDA3.223.222.552.283.59
P/B0.430.430.300.320.28
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth1.7%1.7%-5.8%3.4%—
EPS Growth——11.2%566.2%—
Dividend Yield1.9%1.9%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +8.7%

Total return

+8.7%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

50.49 → n/d

Residual

+6.8%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+1.9%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+6.8%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.