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v0.1
9879.HK$8.77+0.57%
Fair $8.77+0.0%

9879.HK

Migao Group Holdings Limited

Basic Materials / Agricultural InputsHKSE

$8.77

+0.05 (+0.57%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $8.77Fund rank 26/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 56/C
F-Score: 5/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 18%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-1.6M · quality 45.0/100

Data gap 26/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 15/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

56/100

C

Piotroski

5/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific holding-company NAV/SOTP model required: targets are disabled until look-through holdings, debt and discount data exists.
Thesis & Journal · 9879.HKLocal privado en este navegador · Migao Group Holdings Limited
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$8.0B

P/E

21.4x

↑

EV/EBITDA

17.3x

↑

ROE

11.3%

↑

Gross Margin

12.9%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.22

↓
52-Week Range$9
$4$9

TradingView lightweight chart

9879.HK price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $8.850Periodo +116.4%
Fair value: $8.770

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+8.9%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-0.0%

FCF / Net income

-0.01x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $4.97B · net income $307.5M · FCF $-1.6M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

12.9%-3.6% pts

Operating margin

9.2%-2.1% pts

Net margin

6.2%-4.1% pts

FCF margin

-0.0%+0.3% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$4.97B$4.97B$3.77B$4.72B$3.84B
Net Income$307.5M$307.5M$252.5M$405.1M$396.3M
EBITDA$452.3M$452.3M$371.3M$568.8M$494.6M
EPS0.340.340.370.450.44
Gross Margin12.9%12.9%14.2%16.3%16.5%
Operating Margin9.2%9.2%9.2%11.6%11.3%
Net Margin6.2%6.2%6.7%8.6%10.3%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.220.220.220.250.42
Current Ratio2.342.34———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-1.6M$-1.6M$-450.8M$3.9M$-13.4M
Returns
ROE11.3%11.3%10.3%28.5%38.6%
Valuation
P/E21.3921.3911.03——
EV/EBITDA17.2817.286.79——
P/B2.922.921.14——
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth31.7%31.7%-20.2%22.9%—
EPS Growth-8.1%-8.1%-17.8%2.2%—
Dividend Yield0.9%0.9%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

31.8%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.78

Spread vs growth

-39.9%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

22.6%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.94

Spread vs growth

-30.7%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

16.1%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.52

Spread vs growth

-24.2%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +57.6%

Total return

+57.6%

Start / end P/E

15.3x → 26.0x

EPS bridge

0.37 → 0.34

Residual

-5.7%

EPS growth-8.1%
Multiple rerating+70.5%
Dividend+0.9%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-5.7%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.