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9929.T$470.00+1.08%
Fair $470.00+0.0%

9929.T

Heiwa Paper Co.,Ltd.

Basic Materials / Paper & Paper ProductsTokyo

$470.00

+5.00 (+1.08%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $470.00Fund rank 25/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 37/D
F-Score: 5/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 18%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-264.8M · quality 43.7/100

Data gap 25/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 11/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

37/100

D

Piotroski

5/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists. ROE is 1.2%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 9929.TLocal privado en este navegador · Heiwa Paper Co.,Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$4.3B

P/E

56.2x

↑

EV/EBITDA

11.1x

↑

ROE

1.2%

↑

Gross Margin

20.4%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.25

↑
52-Week Range$470
$420$510

TradingView lightweight chart

9929.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $470.00Periodo +0.0%
Fair value: $470.00

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+0.9%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-1.7%

FCF / Net income

-2.26x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $16.03B · net income $117.0M · FCF $-264.8M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

20.4%+1.7% pts

Operating margin

0.9%-0.1% pts

Net margin

0.7%+0.2% pts

FCF margin

-1.7%-3.1% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$16.03B$16.03B$16.12B$16.07B$15.62B
Net Income$117.0M$117.0M$136.3M$874.8M$87.3M
EBITDA$380.2M$380.2M$355.8M$1.40B$255.8M
EPS12.3712.3714.4191.379.04
Gross Margin20.4%20.4%20.4%20.1%18.7%
Operating Margin0.9%0.9%1.0%0.9%1.0%
Net Margin0.7%0.7%0.8%5.4%0.6%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.250.250.240.260.25
Current Ratio1.641.64———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-264.8M$-264.8M$77.6M$-1.14B$226.2M
Returns
ROE1.2%1.2%1.4%9.3%1.0%
Valuation
P/E56.1556.1530.534.4846.35
EV/EBITDA11.0911.0910.642.3311.25
P/B0.450.450.410.420.47
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-0.6%-0.6%0.3%2.9%—
EPS Growth-14.2%-14.2%-84.2%910.7%—
Dividend Yield2.6%2.6%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

49.9%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$41.70

Spread vs growth

-64.1%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

32.5%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$50.46

Spread vs growth

-46.6%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

20.7%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$81.27

Spread vs growth

-34.9%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +12.9%

Total return

+12.9%

Start / end P/E

29.6x → 38.0x

EPS bridge

14.41 → 12.37

Residual

-4.0%

EPS growth-14.2%
Multiple rerating+28.5%
Dividend+2.6%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-4.0%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.