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A4N.AX$0.80+2.56%
Fair $0.80+0.0%

A4N.AX

Alpha HPA Limited

Basic Materials / AluminumASX

$0.80

+0.02 (+2.56%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $0.80Fund rank 32/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 33/D
F-Score: 1/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 33% · confianza 24%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-40.0M · quality 73.7/100

Data gap 32/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 39/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

33/100

D

Piotroski

1/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists. ROE is -14.9%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · A4N.AXLocal privado en este navegador · Alpha HPA Limited
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$1.2B

P/E

N/A

•

EV/EBITDA

N/A

•

ROE

-14.9%

↓

Gross Margin

100.0%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.02

↓
52-Week Range$1
$0$1

TradingView lightweight chart

A4N.AX price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $0.800Periodo +403.1%
Fair value: $0.800

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+101.6%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-33533.7%

FCF / Net income

3.27x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $317517.0 · net income $-32.6M · FCF $-106.5M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

100.0%+66.5% pts

Operating margin

-13716.2%+23399.4% pts

Net margin

-10253.1%+8743.6% pts

FCF margin

-33533.7%+79535.6% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$317517.00$317517.00$44055.00$16148.00$38739.00
Net Income$-32.6M$-32.6M$-25.0M$-15.7M$-7.4M
EBITDA$-28.9M$-28.9M$-22.8M$-16.7M$-14.2M
EPS-0.03-0.03-0.03-0.02-0.01
Gross Margin100.0%100.0%100.0%19.2%33.5%
Operating Margin-13716.2%-13716.2%-67627.7%-109547.4%-37115.6%
Net Margin-10253.1%-10253.1%-56704.2%-97106.2%-18996.7%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.020.020.010.010.01
Current Ratio1.721.72———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-106.5M$-106.5M$-40.0M$-28.9M$-43.8M
Returns
ROE-14.9%-14.9%-10.1%-28.0%-15.7%
Valuation
P/B4.154.153.2317.166.69
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth620.7%620.7%172.8%-58.3%—
EPS Growth-5.9%-5.9%-44.9%-101.1%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -8.0%

Total return

-8.0%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

-0.03 → -0.03

Residual

-8.0%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-8.0%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.