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ADN.TO$17.37-1.08%
Fair $17.37+0.0%

ADN.TO

Acadian Timber Corp.

Basic Materials / Lumber & Wood ProductionToronto

$17.37

-0.19 (-1.08%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $17.37Fund rank 32/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 47/C
F-Score: 5/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 25% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $10.4M · quality 63.7/100

Data gap 32/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 60/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

47/100

C

Piotroski

5/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists.
Thesis & Journal · ADN.TOLocal privado en este navegador · Acadian Timber Corp.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$321M

P/E

6.5x

↓

EV/EBITDA

5.7x

↓

ROE

13.6%

↑

Gross Margin

30.5%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.31

↑
52-Week Range$17
$14$18

TradingView lightweight chart

ADN.TO price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $17.37Periodo +65.4%
Fair value: $17.37

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-1.3%

FCF CAGR

-38.1%

FCF margin

4.2%

FCF / Net income

0.07x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $87.0M · net income $49.0M · FCF $3.6M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

30.5%+0.0% pts

Operating margin

15.3%-4.4% pts

Net margin

56.3%+17.1% pts

FCF margin

4.2%-12.7% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$87.0M$87.0M$116.2M$93.5M$90.5M
Net Income$49.0M$49.0M$21.7M$29.4M$35.5M
EBITDA$73.4M$73.4M$34.6M$43.6M$52.5M
EPS2.702.701.241.722.11
Gross Margin30.5%30.5%32.9%31.6%30.5%
Operating Margin15.3%15.3%20.4%20.9%19.7%
Net Margin56.3%56.3%18.7%31.5%39.2%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.310.310.340.330.36
Current Ratio0.850.85———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$3.6M$3.6M$23.5M$10.4M$15.2M
Returns
ROE13.6%13.6%6.4%9.2%11.7%
Valuation
P/E6.486.4814.3110.157.43
EV/EBITDA5.745.7411.889.246.95
P/B0.880.880.920.940.87
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-25.2%-25.2%24.3%3.3%—
EPS Growth117.7%117.7%-27.9%-18.5%—
Dividend Yield6.7%6.7%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

-17.0%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$1.54

Spread vs growth

134.8%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

-7.1%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$1.86

Spread vs growth

124.9%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

1.1%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$3.00

Spread vs growth

116.7%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +3.3%

Total return

+3.3%

Start / end P/E

14.5x → 6.4x

EPS bridge

1.24 → 2.70

Residual

-65.5%

EPS growth+117.7%
Multiple rerating-55.6%
Dividend+6.7%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-65.5%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.