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AES$14.70+0.20%
Fair $14.70+0.0%

AES

The AES Corporation

Utilities / Utilities - DiversifiedNYSE

$14.70

+0.03 (+0.20%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $14.70Fund rank 18/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 31/D
F-Score: 4/9
High DebtDeclining RevenueMargin Compression

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 20%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-4.6B · quality 26.7/100

Data gap 18/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 17/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

31/100

D

Piotroski

4/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

20/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 19Warnings: 3unknown: 19
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Debt-to-Equity ratio is 7.36, above the 2.0 threshold Revenue has declined for 2 consecutive years Operating margin has declined for 3 consecutive years
Thesis & Journal · AESLocal privado en este navegador · The AES Corporation
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$10.5B

P/E

7.7x

↓

EV/EBITDA

13.3x

↑

ROE

22.4%

↑

Gross Margin

18.1%

↓

Debt/Equity

7.36

↑
52-Week Range$15
$10$18

TradingView lightweight chart

AES price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $14.70Periodo -59.4%
Fair value: $14.70

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2007–2025 · 18 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

—

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-13.3%

FCF / Net income

-1.78x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $12.23B · net income $910.0M · FCF $-1.62B

2007-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

18.1%— pts

Operating margin

16.1%— pts

Net margin

7.4%— pts

FCF margin

-13.3%— pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
Income Statement
Revenue$12.23B$12.23B$12.28B$12.67B$12.62B$11.14B$9.66B$10.19B$10.74B$10.53B$10.28B$11.26B$16.12B$15.89B$17.16B$16.10B$15.44B$13.11B——
Net Income$910.0M$910.0M$1.68B$249.0M$-546.0M$-409.0M$46.0M$303.0M$1.20B$-1.16B$-1.13B$306.0M$769.0M$114.0M$-912.0M$58.0M$9.0M$658.0M$1.23B$-95.0M
EBITDA$2.94B$2.94B$3.64B$2.57B$2.02B———————————————
EPS1.261.262.360.35-0.82-0.610.070.451.81-1.76-1.720.441.060.15-1.210.070.010.981.82-0.14
Gross Margin18.1%18.1%18.8%19.8%20.2%24.3%27.9%23.1%24.0%23.4%23.2%23.7%18.5%20.4%20.9%25.1%24.7%25.6%——
Operating Margin16.1%16.1%16.5%17.8%18.6%———————————————
Net Margin7.4%7.4%13.7%2.0%-4.3%-3.7%0.5%3.0%11.2%-11.0%-11.0%2.7%4.8%0.7%-5.3%0.4%0.1%5.0%——
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity7.367.367.9610.809.64———————————————
Current Ratio0.730.73——————————————————
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-1.62B$-1.62B$-4.64B$-4.69B$-1.84B$-214.0M$855.0M$61.0M$222.0M$327.0M$552.0M$-174.0M$-225.0M$727.0M$793.0M$454.0M$1.16B$-309.0M$-690.0M$-71.0M
Returns
ROE22.4%22.4%46.1%10.0%-22.4%-14.6%1.7%10.1%37.5%-47.1%-40.4%9.7%18.0%2.6%-20.0%1.0%0.1%14.1%33.6%—
Valuation
P/E7.667.665.6153.71————————————————
EV/EBITDA13.2713.2710.1315.1119.66———————————————
P/B2.582.582.585.387.22———————————————
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-0.4%-0.4%-3.1%0.4%—15.3%-5.2%-5.1%2.0%2.4%-8.7%-30.2%1.5%-7.4%6.6%4.2%17.8%———
EPS Growth-46.6%-46.6%574.3%142.7%—-971.4%-84.4%-75.1%202.8%-2.3%-490.9%-58.5%606.7%112.4%-1828.6%600.0%-99.0%-46.2%1400.0%—
Dividend Yield4.8%4.8%——————————————————

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

1.2%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$1.30

Spread vs growth

-47.8%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

4.6%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$1.58

Spread vs growth

-51.2%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

7.3%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$2.54

Spread vs growth

-53.9%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +50.5%

Total return

+50.5%

Start / end P/E

4.3x → 11.7x

EPS bridge

2.36 → 1.26

Residual

-80.6%

EPS growth-46.6%
Multiple rerating+172.9%
Dividend+4.8%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-80.6%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.