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ALCOG.PA$7.56+2.16%
Fair $7.56+0.0%

ALCOG.PA

Cogra 48 Société Anonyme

Basic Materials / Lumber & Wood ProductionParis

$7.56

+0.16 (+2.16%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $7.56Fund rank 31/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 50/C
F-Score: 1/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 25% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF n/d · quality 62.0/100

Data gap 31/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 50/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

50/100

C

Piotroski

1/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists. ROE is 2.4%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · ALCOG.PALocal privado en este navegador · Cogra 48 Société Anonyme
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$26M

P/E

41.5x

↑

EV/EBITDA

8.3x

↓

ROE

2.4%

↑

Gross Margin

20.8%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.43

↑
52-Week Range$8
$5$8

TradingView lightweight chart

ALCOG.PA price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $7.560Periodo +42.6%
Fair value: $7.560

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2021–2024 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+11.9%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

—

FCF / Net income

—

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $39.0M · net income $623574.6 · FCF —

2021-FY → 2024-FY

Gross margin

20.8%-4.2% pts

Operating margin

2.4%-4.9% pts

Net margin

1.6%-3.5% pts

FCF margin

—— pts
MetricTTM
2024
2023
2022
2021
Income Statement
Revenue$39.0M$39.0M$51.2M$42.1M$27.8M
Net Income$623574.55$623574.55$4.1M$2.9M$1.4M
EBITDA$4.2M$4.2M$8.5M$6.8M$3.9M
EPS0.180.181.190.86—
Gross Margin20.8%20.8%23.6%23.8%25.1%
Operating Margin2.4%2.4%10.8%9.4%7.3%
Net Margin1.6%1.6%8.0%7.0%5.1%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.430.430.380.550.70
Current Ratio2.562.56———
Returns
ROE2.4%2.4%16.1%13.7%7.6%
Valuation
P/E41.5241.5210.4514.39—
EV/EBITDA8.268.265.467.038.50
P/B1.001.001.681.971.28
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-23.8%-23.8%21.7%51.0%—
EPS Growth-84.7%-84.7%39.0%——

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

54.4%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.67

Spread vs growth

-139.2%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

34.8%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.81

Spread vs growth

-119.6%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

21.8%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.31

Spread vs growth

-106.5%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +44.3%

Total return

+44.3%

Start / end P/E

4.4x → 41.5x

EPS bridge

1.19 → 0.18

Residual

-716.1%

EPS growth-84.7%
Multiple rerating+845.1%
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-716.1%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.