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ALK.TO$1.47-2.00%
Fair $1.47+0.0%

ALK.TO

ALK.TO

Basic Materials / GoldToronto

$1.47

-0.03 (-2.00%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $1.47Fund rank 26/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 39/D
F-Score: 1/9
Margin Compression

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 18%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $3.0M · quality 44.3/100

Data gap 26/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 12/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

39/100

D

Piotroski

1/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists. Operating margin has declined for 3 consecutive years
Thesis & Journal · ALK.TOLocal privado en este navegador · ALK.TO
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$2.0B

P/E

18.4x

↑

EV/EBITDA

14.3x

↑

ROE

5.7%

↑

Gross Margin

40.5%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.16

↓
52-Week Range$1
$1$2

TradingView lightweight chart

ALK.TO price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $1.470Periodo +83.8%
Fair value: $1.470

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2021–2024 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+10.6%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-47.7%

FCF / Net income

-4.67x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $173.0M · net income $17.7M · FCF $-82.6M

2021-FY → 2024-FY

Gross margin

40.5%-24.0% pts

Operating margin

13.7%-24.9% pts

Net margin

10.2%-33.4% pts

FCF margin

-47.7%-36.0% pts
MetricTTM
2024
2023
2022
2021
Income Statement
Revenue$173.0M$173.0M$190.5M$165.0M$127.8M
Net Income$17.7M$17.7M$42.5M$70.3M$55.7M
EBITDA$62.9M$62.9M$97.8M$137.3M$72.2M
EPS0.030.030.070.120.09
Gross Margin40.5%40.5%56.2%59.1%64.6%
Operating Margin13.7%13.7%30.9%31.7%38.5%
Net Margin10.2%10.2%22.3%42.6%43.6%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.160.160.050.060.05
Current Ratio2.272.27———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-82.6M$-82.6M$3.7M$3.0M$-15.0M
Returns
ROE5.7%5.7%14.2%26.1%29.1%
Valuation
P/E18.3818.38———
EV/EBITDA14.3414.34———
P/B2.912.91———
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-9.2%-9.2%15.5%29.1%—
EPS Growth-58.7%-58.7%-39.9%25.4%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

65.3%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.13

Spread vs growth

-124.0%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

40.4%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.16

Spread vs growth

-99.1%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

24.3%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.25

Spread vs growth

-83.0%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · available periodreconcilia total +83.8%

Total return

+83.8%

Start / end P/E

11.4x → 50.9x

EPS bridge

0.07 → 0.03

Residual

-202.6%

EPS growth-58.7%
Multiple rerating+345.1%
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-202.6%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.