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ALKA.IS$10.45+0.97%
Fair $10.45+0.0%

ALKA.IS

Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS

Basic Materials / Paper & Paper ProductsIstanbul

$10.45

+0.10 (+0.97%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $10.45Fund rank 31/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 34/D
F-Score: 2/9
Declining RevenueLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 20%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $38.2M · quality 55.3/100

Data gap 31/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 30/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

34/100

D

Piotroski

2/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 2unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists. Revenue has declined for 2 consecutive years ROE is -8.4%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · ALKA.ISLocal privado en este navegador · Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$7.7B

P/E

N/A

•

EV/EBITDA

N/A

•

ROE

-8.4%

↓

Gross Margin

13.3%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.08

↓
52-Week Range$10
$6$17

TradingView lightweight chart

ALKA.IS price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $10.45Periodo +13833.3%
Fair value: $10.45

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2021–2024 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+57.3%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-19.0%

FCF / Net income

3.69x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $2.73B · net income $-140.7M · FCF $-518.9M

2021-FY → 2024-FY

Gross margin

13.3%-8.9% pts

Operating margin

5.9%-13.3% pts

Net margin

-5.2%-31.5% pts

FCF margin

-19.0%-40.8% pts
MetricTTM
2024
2023
2022
2021
Income Statement
Revenue$2.73B$2.73B$3.45B$3.54B$701.0M
Net Income$-140.7M$-140.7M$130.7M$481.5M$184.3M
EBITDA$-91.7M$-91.7M$337.1M$786.8M$243.8M
EPS——0.180.660.25
Gross Margin13.3%13.3%22.8%28.5%22.2%
Operating Margin5.9%5.9%18.4%26.0%19.2%
Net Margin-5.2%-5.2%3.8%13.6%26.3%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.080.08———
Current Ratio1.061.06———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-518.9M$-518.9M$873.5M$38.2M$152.7M
Returns
ROE-8.4%-8.4%7.2%36.5%53.3%
Valuation
P/E——39.7212.794.78
EV/EBITDA——13.467.482.53
P/B4.584.582.844.662.54
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-21.0%-21.0%-2.7%405.7%—
EPS Growth——-72.9%162.0%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +52.1%

Total return

+52.1%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

0.18 → n/d

Residual

+52.1%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+52.1%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.