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ALU.L$245.00-1.01%
Fair $245.00+0.0%

ALU.L

The Alumasc Group plc

Utilities / Utilities - Regulated WaterLSE

$245.00

-2.50 (-1.01%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $245.00Fund rank 35/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 40/C
F-Score: 6/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 24% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $9.8M · quality 69.7/100

Data gap 35/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 67/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

40/100

C

Piotroski

6/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · ALU.LLocal privado en este navegador · The Alumasc Group plc
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$88M

P/E

12.3x

↓

EV/EBITDA

500.9x

↑

ROE

22.8%

↑

Gross Margin

37.9%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.47

↓
52-Week Range$245
$205$395

TradingView lightweight chart

ALU.L price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $245.00Periodo +122.7%
Fair value: $245.00

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+8.3%

FCF CAGR

+95.8%

FCF margin

8.6%

FCF / Net income

1.05x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $113.4M · net income $9.3M · FCF $9.8M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

37.9%+0.6% pts

Operating margin

13.4%-1.5% pts

Net margin

8.2%+16.1% pts

FCF margin

8.6%+7.2% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$113.4M$113.4M$100.7M$89.1M$89.4M
Net Income$9.3M$9.3M$8.7M$6.6M$-7.0M
EBITDA$18.0M$18.0M$16.6M$14.4M$15.4M
EPS0.250.250.240.18-0.20
Gross Margin37.9%37.9%38.0%36.7%37.3%
Operating Margin13.4%13.4%14.0%13.5%14.8%
Net Margin8.2%8.2%8.7%7.4%-7.9%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.470.470.620.590.70
Current Ratio1.881.88———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$9.8M$9.8M$11.0M$9.0M$1.3M
Returns
ROE22.8%22.8%26.1%25.6%-27.4%
Valuation
P/E12.2512.25792.53763.74—
EV/EBITDA500.94500.94417.42349.89365.82
P/B220.26220.26206.50195.39217.91
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth12.6%12.6%13.0%-0.3%—
EPS Growth5.0%5.0%32.4%190.5%—
Dividend Yield4.5%4.5%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

341.3%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$21.74

Spread vs growth

-336.3%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

153.2%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$26.30

Spread vs growth

-148.2%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

66.9%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$42.36

Spread vs growth

-61.9%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -31.8%

Total return

-31.8%

Start / end P/E

1597.5x → 968.4x

EPS bridge

0.24 → 0.25

Residual

-2.0%

EPS growth+5.0%
Multiple rerating-39.4%
Dividend+4.5%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-2.0%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.