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AMSF$30.44-0.69%
Fair $30.44+0.0%

AMSF

AMERISAFE, Inc.

Financial Services / Insurance - SpecialtyNasdaqGS

$30.44

-0.21 (-0.69%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $30.44Fund rank 30/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 24/D
F-Score: 3/9

Book/ROE base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · P/B n/d

Book/ROE base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 100% · confianza 20%

Book/ROE escenarios

weak_data · book/share n/d · quality 75.0/100

Data gap 30/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 66/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

24/100

D

Piotroski

3/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

20/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 17Warnings: 0unknown: 17
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); financial Book/ROE targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · AMSFLocal privado en este navegador · AMERISAFE, Inc.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$569M

P/E

12.5x

↓

EV/EBITDA

N/A

•

ROE

18.7%

↑

Gross Margin

N/A

•

Debt/Equity

N/A

•
52-Week Range$30
$29$48

TradingView lightweight chart

AMSF price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $30.44Periodo +238.2%
Fair value: $30.44

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2009–2025 · 16 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+0.7%

FCF CAGR

-6.5%

FCF margin

2.8%

FCF / Net income

0.19x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $317.3M · net income $47.1M · FCF $8.9M

2009-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

—— pts

Operating margin

—— pts

Net margin

14.9%-2.0% pts

FCF margin

2.8%-6.5% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
Income Statement
Revenue$317.3M$317.3M$309.1M$306.9M$294.7M$315.9M$339.5M$370.4M$377.8M$375.2M$396.7M$401.0M$404.0M$356.3M$321.2M$280.7M$248.2M$282.2M
Net Income$47.1M$47.1M$55.4M$62.1M$55.6M$65.8M$86.6M$92.7M$71.6M$46.2M$77.9M$70.5M$53.7M$43.6M$29.4M$24.2M$34.5M$47.6M
EPS2.472.472.893.232.883.394.474.803.712.404.053.692.842.321.581.291.812.28
Net Margin14.9%14.9%17.9%20.2%18.9%20.8%25.5%25.0%19.0%12.3%19.6%17.6%13.3%12.2%9.1%8.6%13.9%16.9%
Balance Sheet
Current Ratio1.921.92————————————————
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$8.9M$8.9M$23.4M$29.3M$26.1M$36.7M$62.5M$77.8M$97.1M$130.3M$112.6M———$79.9M$42.6M$41.6M$26.3M
Returns
ROE18.7%18.7%21.5%21.2%17.5%16.5%19.7%21.5%17.5%10.9%17.1%15.5%12.0%10.5%7.7%6.9%10.5%15.5%
Valuation
P/E12.5312.5317.6414.4518.02—————————————
P/B2.312.313.793.073.16—————————————
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth2.6%2.6%0.7%4.1%—-6.9%-8.3%-2.0%0.7%-5.4%-1.1%-0.8%13.4%10.9%14.5%13.1%-12.1%—
EPS Growth-14.5%-14.5%-10.5%12.2%—-24.2%-6.9%29.4%54.6%-40.7%9.8%29.9%22.4%46.8%22.5%-28.7%-20.6%—
Dividend Yield5.3%5.3%————————————————

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

3.0%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$2.70

Spread vs growth

-17.6%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

5.8%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$3.27

Spread vs growth

-20.3%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

7.9%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$5.26

Spread vs growth

-22.4%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -30.5%

Total return

-30.5%

Start / end P/E

16.4x → 12.3x

EPS bridge

2.89 → 2.47

Residual

+3.6%

EPS growth-14.5%
Multiple rerating-25.0%
Dividend+5.3%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+3.6%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.