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ARI.JO$20953.00+1.64%
Fair $20953.00+0.0%

ARI.JO

African Rainbow Minerals Limited

Basic Materials / Other Industrial Metals & MiningJohannesburg

$20953.00

+339.00 (+1.64%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $20953.00Fund rank 26/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 42/C
F-Score: 3/9
Margin CompressionLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 18%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-210.0M · quality 43.7/100

Data gap 26/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 14/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

42/100

C

Piotroski

3/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 2unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists. Operating margin has declined for 3 consecutive years ROE is 0.6%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · ARI.JOLocal privado en este navegador · African Rainbow Minerals Limited
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$42.1B

P/E

31.2x

↑

EV/EBITDA

2875.9x

↑

ROE

0.6%

↑

Gross Margin

-1.6%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.04

↓
52-Week Range$20953
$15580$27668

TradingView lightweight chart

ARI.JO price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $20,953Periodo +295.3%
Fair value: $20,953

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-11.7%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-1.8%

FCF / Net income

-0.64x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $11.66B · net income $330.0M · FCF $-210.0M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

-1.6%-56.3% pts

Operating margin

-5.3%-51.4% pts

Net margin

2.8%-70.6% pts

FCF margin

-1.8%-17.1% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$11.66B$11.66B$11.42B$14.66B$16.92B
Net Income$330.0M$330.0M$3.15B$8.08B$12.43B
EBITDA$1.43B$1.43B$2.39B$12.28B$18.24B
EPS1.681.6816.0341.1263.38
Gross Margin-1.6%-1.6%7.7%39.7%54.7%
Operating Margin-5.3%-5.3%0.3%33.2%46.1%
Net Margin2.8%2.8%27.6%55.1%73.5%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.040.040.020.000.01
Current Ratio4.154.15———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-210.0M$-210.0M$-2.22B$1.79B$2.59B
Returns
ROE0.6%0.6%5.8%16.4%26.9%
Valuation
P/E31.1831.181493.45466.49356.85
EV/EBITDA2875.912875.911960.90306.29242.44
P/B73.5973.5986.9776.5896.05
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth2.1%2.1%-22.1%-13.3%—
EPS Growth-89.5%-89.5%-61.0%-35.1%—
Dividend Yield5.3%5.3%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

934.4%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1859.23

Spread vs growth

-1023.9%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

322.0%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$2249.67

Spread vs growth

-411.6%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

115.5%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$3623.11

Spread vs growth

-205.0%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +35.2%

Total return

+35.2%

Start / end P/E

1006.9x → 12472.0x

EPS bridge

16.03 → 1.68

Residual

-1019.4%

EPS growth-89.5%
Multiple rerating+1138.7%
Dividend+5.3%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-1019.4%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.