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ASTL$5.80+3.20%
Fair $5.80+0.0%

ASTL

Algoma Steel Group Inc.

Basic Materials / SteelNasdaqGM

$5.80

+0.18 (+3.20%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $5.80Fund rank 21/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 29/D
F-Score: 1/9
Margin CompressionLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 14%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-195.2M · quality 26.3/100

Data gap 21/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 12/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

29/100

D

Piotroski

1/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 2unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists. Operating margin has declined for 3 consecutive years ROE is -2.0%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · ASTLLocal privado en este navegador · Algoma Steel Group Inc.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$611M

P/E

N/A

•

EV/EBITDA

N/A

•

ROE

-200.5%

↓

Gross Margin

-31.9%

↓

Debt/Equity

1.76

↑
52-Week Range$6
$3$7

TradingView lightweight chart

ASTL price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $5.800Periodo -40.3%
Fair value: $5.800

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-18.2%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-18.9%

FCF / Net income

0.40x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $2.09B · net income $-984.9M · FCF $-394.6M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

-31.9%-71.7% pts

Operating margin

-37.3%-74.3% pts

Net margin

-47.2%-69.8% pts

FCF margin

-18.9%-47.7% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$2.09B$2.09B$2.80B$2.78B$3.81B
Net Income$-984.9M$-984.9M$105.2M$298.5M$857.7M
EBITDA$-859.6M$-859.6M$301.9M$504.0M$1.30B
EPS-9.06-9.060.701.717.75
Gross Margin-31.9%-31.9%10.1%14.0%39.8%
Operating Margin-37.3%-37.3%6.0%10.5%37.1%
Net Margin-47.2%-47.2%3.8%10.7%22.5%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity1.761.760.100.080.06
Current Ratio2.452.45———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-394.6M$-394.6M$-195.2M$-193.8M$1.10B
Returns
ROE-200.5%-200.5%7.0%20.4%54.2%
Valuation
P/E——11.764.401.52
EV/EBITDA——3.121.590.71
P/B1.281.280.590.631.10
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-25.4%-25.4%0.6%-27.0%—
EPS Growth-1394.3%-1394.3%-59.1%-77.9%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +10.1%

Total return

+10.1%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

0.70 → -9.06

Residual

+10.1%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+10.1%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.