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AWR$76.84+0.58%
Fair $65.90-14.2%

AWR

American States Water Company

Utilities / Utilities - Regulated WaterNYSE

$76.84

+0.44 (+0.58%)

Fairly Valued-14.2%Fair Value $65.90Fund rank 25/100 · Data gapSEC 17/17 yrs|
SA 41/C
F-Score: 6/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 28% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-33.2M · quality 44.0/100

Data gap 25/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 21/100Data QA 35/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

41/100

C

Piotroski

6/9

balance/quality

Valuation

36/100

-14.2% upside

5Y CAGR

+6.3%

75/100

Data QA

100/100

SEC 100%

Latest source: sec-companyfactsPeriods: 17Warnings: 0sec-companyfacts: 17
Thesis & Journal · AWRLocal privado en este navegador · American States Water Company
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$3.0B

P/E

22.7x

↑

EV/EBITDA

14.8x

↑

ROE

12.5%

↑

Gross Margin

74.4%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.75

↑
52-Week Range$77
$69$81
EV/EBITDA Historical14.8x

TradingView lightweight chart

AWR price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $76.40Periodo +537.8%
Fair value: $65.90

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2009–2025 · 16 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+4.0%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-1.1%

FCF / Net income

-0.05x

Latest source

SEC-backed

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $658.1M · net income $130.4M · FCF $-7.1M

2009-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

74.4%— pts

Operating margin

30.9%+11.4% pts

Net margin

19.8%+11.5% pts

FCF margin

-1.1%+0.3% pts
SEC-backed annual metrics active for 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010, 2009. Local SEC Companyfacts override Yahoo/FMP for audited annual line items; provider-only fields remain as fallback.
MetricTTM
2025SEC
2024SEC
2023SEC
2022SEC
2021SEC
2020SEC
2019SEC
2018SEC
2017SEC
2016SEC
2015SEC
2014SEC
2013SEC
2012SEC
2011SEC
2010SEC
2009SEC
Income Statement
Revenue$658.1M$658.1M$595.5M$595.7M$491.5M$498.9M$488.2M$473.9M$436.8M$440.6M$436.1M$458.6M$465.8M$472.1M$466.9M$419.9M$399.8M$353.3M
Net Income$130.4M$130.4M$119.3M$124.9M$78.4M$94.3M$86.4M$84.3M$63.9M$69.4M$59.7M$60.5M$61.1M$62.7M$54.1M$45.9M$33.2M$29.5M
EBITDA$265.4M$265.4M$244.0M$252.5M$170.8M$180.6M$167.3M$162.5M$141.4M$166.1M$153.0M$160.5M$160.1M$159.2M$152.5M$133.5M$111.2M$100.4M
EPS3.373.373.173.362.112.552.332.281.721.881.621.601.571.611.411.211.771.62
Gross Margin74.4%74.4%75.9%75.5%74.9%—————————————
Operating Margin30.9%30.9%31.0%33.0%25.8%28.3%26.7%26.8%23.1%28.8%26.2%25.8%25.6%25.2%23.8%22.6%18.5%19.5%
Net Margin19.8%19.8%20.0%21.0%15.9%18.9%17.7%17.8%14.6%15.7%13.7%13.2%13.1%13.3%11.6%10.9%8.3%8.4%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.750.750.700.740.630.600.690.470.580.610.650.690.640.680.740.830.80—
Current Ratio1.221.22————————————————
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-7.1M$-7.1M$-33.2M$-120.9M$-48.4M$-28.9M$-8.3M$-35.1M$10.2M$31.4M$-32.9M$7.8M$90.7M$38.3M$33.4M$-114000.00$-25.3M$-4.9M
Returns
ROE12.5%12.5%13.0%16.1%11.0%13.8%13.5%14.0%11.4%13.1%12.1%13.0%12.0%12.7%11.9%11.2%8.8%8.2%
Valuation
P/E22.7422.7424.1722.8136.3230.0532.8933.6144.5540.7647.3047.8948.8147.6054.3563.3343.2947.30
EV/EBITDA14.7814.7815.5014.9624.79—————————————
P/B2.832.833.133.664.004.134.424.715.075.335.706.195.886.056.457.063.803.88
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth10.5%10.5%-0.0%21.2%-1.5%2.2%3.0%8.5%-0.9%1.0%-4.9%-1.5%-1.3%1.1%11.2%5.0%13.2%—
EPS Growth6.3%6.3%-5.7%59.2%-17.3%9.4%2.2%32.6%-8.5%16.0%1.3%1.9%-2.5%14.2%16.5%-31.6%9.3%—
Dividend Yield2.6%2.6%————————————————

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growth
terminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

26.5%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$6.82

Spread vs growth

-20.2%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

19.6%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$8.25

Spread vs growth

-13.3%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

14.7%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$13.29

Spread vs growth

-8.4%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +0.3%

Total return

+0.3%

Start / end P/E

24.8x → 22.8x

EPS bridge

3.17 → 3.37

Residual

-0.5%

EPS growth+6.3%
Multiple rerating-8.1%
Dividend+2.6%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-0.5%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.

14.8x
24.8x
EV/EBITDA vs Sector14.8x
4.8xmed 9.7x22.2x