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AYGAZ.IS$244.10+2.74%
Fair $244.10+0.0%

AYGAZ.IS

Aygaz A.S.

Utilities / Utilities - Regulated GasIstanbul

$244.10

+6.50 (+2.74%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $244.10Fund rank 26/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 59/C
F-Score: 5/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 18%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $560.5M · quality 45.0/100

Data gap 26/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 14/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

59/100

C

Piotroski

5/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists.
Thesis & Journal · AYGAZ.ISLocal privado en este navegador · Aygaz A.S.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$53.7B

P/E

10.2x

↓

EV/EBITDA

6.1x

↓

ROE

7.2%

↑

Gross Margin

10.4%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.04

↓
52-Week Range$244
$120$295

TradingView lightweight chart

AYGAZ.IS price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $244.10Periodo +281.4%
Fair value: $244.10

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+7.9%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

0.6%

FCF / Net income

0.11x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $89.66B · net income $5.00B · FCF $560.5M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

10.4%+5.0% pts

Operating margin

2.3%+1.4% pts

Net margin

5.6%-4.0% pts

FCF margin

0.6%+2.4% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$89.66B$89.66B$107.03B$93.61B$71.29B
Net Income$5.00B$5.00B$2.78B$8.60B$6.85B
EBITDA$7.89B$7.89B$5.87B$10.36B$8.77B
EPS22.7322.7312.6439.1125.06
Gross Margin10.4%10.4%8.4%7.7%5.4%
Operating Margin2.3%2.3%1.0%0.8%1.0%
Net Margin5.6%5.6%2.6%9.2%9.6%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.040.040.040.060.19
Current Ratio1.371.37———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$560.5M$560.5M$-3.54B$1.66B$-1.24B
Returns
ROE7.2%7.2%4.1%16.5%22.4%
Valuation
P/E10.2010.2013.513.553.41
EV/EBITDA6.116.115.992.783.00
P/B0.770.770.550.580.76
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-16.2%-16.2%14.3%31.3%—
EPS Growth79.8%79.8%-67.7%56.1%—
Dividend Yield5.3%5.3%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

-1.6%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$21.66

Spread vs growth

81.4%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

2.9%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$26.21

Spread vs growth

77.0%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

6.4%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$42.21

Spread vs growth

73.5%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +102.6%

Total return

+102.6%

Start / end P/E

9.8x → 10.7x

EPS bridge

12.64 → 22.73

Residual

+7.8%

EPS growth+79.8%
Multiple rerating+9.7%
Dividend+5.3%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+7.8%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.