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BHP.AX$62.48+0.27%
Fair $62.48+0.0%

BHP.AX

BHP Group Limited

Basic Materials / Other Industrial Metals & MiningASX

$62.48

+0.17 (+0.27%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $62.48Fund rank 35/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 51/C
F-Score: 5/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 25% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $11.8B · quality 72.3/100

Data gap 35/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 70/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

51/100

C

Piotroski

5/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists.
Thesis & Journal · BHP.AXLocal privado en este navegador · BHP Group Limited
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$317.4B

P/E

22.3x

↑

EV/EBITDA

12.8x

↑

ROE

19.5%

↑

Gross Margin

71.7%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.53

↑
52-Week Range$62
$36$63

TradingView lightweight chart

BHP.AX price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $62.48Periodo +743.6%
Fair value: $62.48

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-7.7%

FCF CAGR

-29.3%

FCF margin

18.1%

FCF / Net income

1.03x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $51.26B · net income $9.02B · FCF $9.29B

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

71.7%-5.4% pts

Operating margin

37.2%-13.3% pts

Net margin

17.6%-29.9% pts

FCF margin

18.1%-22.3% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$51.26B$51.26B$55.66B$53.82B$65.10B
Net Income$9.02B$9.02B$7.90B$12.92B$30.90B
EBITDA$25.77B$25.77B$23.52B$28.61B$39.96B
EPS1.771.771.552.556.09
Gross Margin71.7%71.7%72.8%70.4%77.1%
Operating Margin37.2%37.2%41.2%40.8%50.5%
Net Margin17.6%17.6%14.2%24.0%47.5%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.530.530.480.520.38
Current Ratio1.651.65———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$9.29B$9.29B$11.85B$11.97B$26.32B
Returns
ROE19.5%19.5%18.2%30.0%71.0%
Valuation
P/E22.3122.3128.5516.966.44
EV/EBITDA12.8212.829.938.014.96
P/B6.876.875.205.094.57
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-7.9%-7.9%3.4%-17.3%—
EPS Growth14.1%14.1%-38.9%-58.2%—
Dividend Yield3.1%3.1%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

46.2%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$5.54

Spread vs growth

-32.1%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

30.5%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$6.71

Spread vs growth

-16.4%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

19.8%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$10.80

Spread vs growth

-5.7%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +67.8%

Total return

+67.8%

Start / end P/E

24.4x → 35.2x

EPS bridge

1.55 → 1.77

Residual

+6.2%

EPS growth+14.1%
Multiple rerating+44.3%
Dividend+3.1%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+6.2%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.