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CLW$16.59+1.84%
Fair $16.59+0.0%

CLW

Clearwater Paper Corporation

Basic Materials / Paper & Paper ProductsNYSE

$16.59

+0.30 (+1.84%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $16.59Fund rank 30/100 · Data gapSEC 14/14 yrs|
SA 37/D
F-Score: 4/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 28% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-55.2M · quality 50.0/100

Data gap 30/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 25/100Data QA 35/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

37/100

D

Piotroski

4/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

90/100

SEC 100%

Latest source: sec-companyfactsPeriods: 14Warnings: 1sec-companyfacts: 14
Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists. ROE is -2.3%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · CLWLocal privado en este navegador · Clearwater Paper Corporation
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$268M

P/E

N/A

•

EV/EBITDA

12.2x

↑

ROE

-2.3%

↓

Gross Margin

7.4%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.42

↑
52-Week Range$17
$12$31

TradingView lightweight chart

CLW price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $16.60Periodo +47.6%
Fair value: $16.59

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2009–2025 · 16 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+1.4%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-4.9%

FCF / Net income

4.11x

Latest source

SEC-backed

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $1.56B · net income $-18.6M · FCF $-76.5M

2009-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

7.4%— pts

Operating margin

-2.7%— pts

Net margin

-1.2%-15.8% pts

FCF margin

-4.9%-21.4% pts
SEC-backed annual metrics active for 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010, 2009. Local SEC Companyfacts override Yahoo/FMP for audited annual line items; provider-only fields remain as fallback.
MetricTTM
2025SEC
2024SEC
2023SEC
2022SEC
2021SEC
2020SEC
2019SEC
2018SEC
2014SEC
2013SEC
2012SEC
2011SEC
2010SEC
2009SEC
Income Statement
Revenue$1.56B$1.56B$1.38B$1.14B$1.20B$1.77B$1.87B$1.76B$1.72B$472.3M$470.2M$1.87B$1.93B$1.37B$1.25B
Net Income$-18.6M$-18.6M$196.3M$107.7M$46.0M$-28.1M$77.1M$-5.6M$-143.8M$-27.2M$82.9M$64.1M$39.7M$73.8M$182.5M
EBITDA$48.8M$48.8M$-900000.00$117.8M$134.1M$117.0M$269.1M$161.0M$4.0M$170.0M$189.6M$224.7M$192.4M$146.5M—
EPS-1.15-1.1511.706.302.68-1.674.61-0.34-8.72-1.393.872.721.663.127.75
Gross Margin7.4%7.4%1.1%3.2%17.8%——————————
Operating Margin-2.7%-2.7%-4.7%6.9%8.3%0.7%8.5%2.6%-5.7%-3.8%8.1%7.8%6.0%7.2%—
Net Margin-1.2%-1.2%14.2%9.5%3.8%-1.6%4.1%-0.3%-8.3%-5.8%17.6%3.4%2.1%5.4%14.6%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.420.420.330.660.991.251.382.09—1.161.070.971.081.15—
Current Ratio2.602.60—————————————
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-76.5M$-76.5M$-55.2M$117.0M$116.7M$58.0M$207.4M$-84.5M$-126.8M$46.1M$45.8M$-5.1M$-65.7M$139.5M$205.4M
Returns
ROE-2.3%-2.3%23.0%16.1%8.0%-5.5%14.8%-1.3%-33.7%-5.5%13.7%11.9%8.2%15.8%50.2%
Valuation
P/E——1.422.636.19—3.60———4.296.1010.005.322.14
EV/EBITDA12.2212.22—8.678.67——————————
P/B0.330.330.330.420.500.540.530.640.640.670.610.720.820.841.07
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth12.4%12.4%21.8%-4.9%-32.6%-5.1%6.1%2.2%265.1%0.5%-74.9%-2.8%40.4%9.8%—
EPS Growth-109.8%-109.8%85.7%135.1%260.5%-136.2%1455.9%96.1%-527.3%-135.9%42.3%63.9%-46.8%-59.7%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -42.3%

Total return

-42.3%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

11.70 → -1.15

Residual

-42.3%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-42.3%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.