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COG.AX$1.48-1.99%
Fair $1.48+0.0%

COG.AX

COG Financial Services Limited

Financial Services / Capital MarketsASX

$1.48

-0.03 (-1.99%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $1.48Fund rank 26/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 33/D
F-Score: 4/9
High Debt

Book/ROE base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · P/B n/d

Book/ROE base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 100% · confianza 20%

Book/ROE escenarios

weak_data · book/share n/d · quality 37.0/100

Data gap 26/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 42/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

33/100

D

Piotroski

4/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); financial Book/ROE targets are disabled until manually verified. Debt-to-Equity ratio is 2.47, above the 2.0 threshold
Thesis & Journal · COG.AXLocal privado en este navegador · COG Financial Services Limited
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$316M

P/E

14.8x

↑

EV/EBITDA

N/A

•

ROE

12.3%

↑

Gross Margin

N/A

•

Debt/Equity

2.47

↑
52-Week Range$1
$1$2

TradingView lightweight chart

COG.AX price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $1.480Periodo -79.2%
Fair value: $1.480

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+3.6%

FCF CAGR

-39.9%

FCF margin

21.7%

FCF / Net income

2.31x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $199.9M · net income $18.8M · FCF $43.4M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

—— pts

Operating margin

—— pts

Net margin

9.4%-1.6% pts

FCF margin

21.7%-89.7% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$199.9M$199.9M$315.6M$218.2M$179.6M
Net Income$18.8M$18.8M$12.9M$8.1M$19.7M
EPS0.090.090.070.040.11
Net Margin9.4%9.4%4.1%3.7%11.0%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity2.472.472.591.731.42
Current Ratio0.930.93———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$43.4M$43.4M$35.7M$20.2M$200.1M
Returns
ROE12.3%12.3%7.0%4.9%11.5%
Valuation
P/E14.8014.8016.6432.0414.30
P/B1.941.941.161.581.65
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-36.7%-36.7%44.6%21.5%—
EPS Growth40.9%40.9%56.6%-61.0%—
Dividend Yield4.7%4.7%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

11.8%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$0.13

Spread vs growth

29.1%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

11.1%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$0.16

Spread vs growth

29.9%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

10.5%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$0.26

Spread vs growth

30.4%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +2.1%

Total return

+2.1%

Start / end P/E

22.8x → 15.7x

EPS bridge

0.07 → 0.09

Residual

-12.7%

EPS growth+40.9%
Multiple rerating-30.9%
Dividend+4.7%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-12.7%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.