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COG.WA$6.30-2.63%
Fair $6.30+0.0%

COG.WA

Cognor Holding S.A.

Basic Materials / SteelWarsaw

$6.30

-0.17 (-2.63%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $6.30Fund rank 29/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 23/D
F-Score: 4/9
Declining RevenueMargin CompressionLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 19%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-216.3M · quality 50.3/100

Data gap 29/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 23/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

23/100

D

Piotroski

4/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 3unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific holding-company NAV/SOTP model required: targets are disabled until look-through holdings, debt and discount data exists. Revenue has declined for 3 consecutive years Operating margin has declined for 3 consecutive years ROE is -9.4%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · COG.WALocal privado en este navegador · Cognor Holding S.A.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$1.5B

P/E

N/A

•

EV/EBITDA

N/A

•

ROE

-9.4%

↓

Gross Margin

2.2%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.62

↑
52-Week Range$6
$4$8

TradingView lightweight chart

COG.WA price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $6.300Periodo +229.8%
Fair value: $6.300

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-17.2%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-10.4%

FCF / Net income

1.73x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $2.08B · net income $-125.2M · FCF $-216.3M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

2.2%-22.2% pts

Operating margin

-7.0%-25.4% pts

Net margin

-6.0%-21.8% pts

FCF margin

-10.4%-18.1% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$2.08B$2.08B$2.29B$2.72B$3.67B
Net Income$-125.2M$-125.2M$-54.0M$229.3M$577.9M
EBITDA$-35.0M$-35.0M$31.8M$356.6M$810.1M
EPS-0.71-0.71-0.311.253.37
Gross Margin2.2%2.2%1.8%10.3%24.4%
Operating Margin-7.0%-7.0%-6.0%5.4%18.5%
Net Margin-6.0%-6.0%-2.4%8.4%15.8%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.620.620.790.470.34
Current Ratio0.920.92———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-216.3M$-216.3M$-295.5M$-93.8M$281.0M
Returns
ROE-9.4%-9.4%-4.9%19.7%50.0%
Valuation
P/E———6.431.39
EV/EBITDA——66.415.581.25
P/B0.900.901.191.300.69
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-9.3%-9.3%-15.7%-25.8%—
EPS Growth-129.0%-129.0%-124.8%-62.9%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -19.2%

Total return

-19.2%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

-0.31 → -0.71

Residual

-19.2%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-19.2%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.