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EMAE4.SA$39.00-2.50%
Fair $39.00+0.0%

EMAE4.SA

Empresa Metropolitana de Águas e Energia S.A.

Utilities / Utilities - DiversifiedSão Paulo

$39.00

-1.00 (-2.50%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $39.00Fund rank 28/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 28/D
F-Score: 2/9
Declining RevenueLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 19%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-45.6M · quality 50.7/100

Data gap 28/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 21/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

28/100

D

Piotroski

2/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 2unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Revenue has declined for 2 consecutive years ROE is -22.4%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · EMAE4.SALocal privado en este navegador · Empresa Metropolitana de Águas e Energia S.A.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$1.4B

P/E

N/A

•

EV/EBITDA

N/A

•

ROE

-22.4%

↓

Gross Margin

46.9%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.01

↓
52-Week Range$39
$27$50

TradingView lightweight chart

EMAE4.SA price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $39.00Periodo +766.7%
Fair value: $39.00

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-3.6%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-21.8%

FCF / Net income

0.78x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $476.9M · net income $-133.4M · FCF $-104.1M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

46.9%+33.2% pts

Operating margin

-36.1%-27.9% pts

Net margin

-28.0%-40.7% pts

FCF margin

-21.8%-31.7% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$476.9M$476.9M$522.4M$603.3M$532.7M
Net Income$-133.4M$-133.4M$29.1M$150.5M$68.0M
EBITDA$-205.1M$-205.1M$27.0M$166.7M$84.4M
EPS-3.74-3.740.744.231.91
Gross Margin46.9%46.9%25.5%26.6%13.7%
Operating Margin-36.1%-36.1%-19.4%6.6%-8.1%
Net Margin-28.0%-28.0%5.6%24.9%12.8%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.010.010.010.010.00
Current Ratio3.073.07———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-104.1M$-104.1M$-45.6M$86.0M$52.5M
Returns
ROE-22.4%-22.4%3.8%21.7%6.1%
Valuation
P/E——52.3613.8133.51
EV/EBITDA——45.2010.4122.86
P/B2.422.422.003.112.10
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-8.7%-8.7%-13.4%13.3%—
EPS Growth-605.4%-605.4%-82.5%121.5%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +28.5%

Total return

+28.5%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

0.74 → -3.74

Residual

+28.5%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+28.5%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.