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ERCB.IS$66.55+5.72%
Fair $66.55+0.0%

ERCB.IS

Erciyas Çelik Boru Sanayi A.S.

Basic Materials / SteelIstanbul

$66.55

+3.60 (+5.72%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $66.55Fund rank 24/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 34/D
F-Score: 1/9
Declining RevenueMargin CompressionLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 16%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-465.8M · quality 33.7/100

Data gap 24/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 21/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

34/100

D

Piotroski

1/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 3unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists. Revenue has declined for 2 consecutive years Operating margin has declined for 3 consecutive years ROE is -11.4%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · ERCB.ISLocal privado en este navegador · Erciyas Çelik Boru Sanayi A.S.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$5.2B

P/E

N/A

•

EV/EBITDA

14.1x

↑

ROE

-11.4%

↓

Gross Margin

21.2%

↑

Debt/Equity

1.58

↑
52-Week Range$67
$47$105

TradingView lightweight chart

ERCB.IS price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $66.55Periodo +13.6%
Fair value: $66.55

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+26.2%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-12.2%

FCF / Net income

2.13x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $7.08B · net income $-405.8M · FCF $-865.6M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

21.2%+4.1% pts

Operating margin

2.7%-2.1% pts

Net margin

-5.7%-11.0% pts

FCF margin

-12.2%-9.2% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$7.08B$7.08B$7.25B$8.26B$3.52B
Net Income$-405.8M$-405.8M$28.6M$92.2M$184.8M
EBITDA$757.3M$757.3M$1.09B$543.5M$369.2M
EPS——0.371.192.38
Gross Margin21.2%21.2%17.9%17.7%17.1%
Operating Margin2.7%2.7%3.7%4.7%4.7%
Net Margin-5.7%-5.7%0.4%1.1%5.3%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity1.581.581.191.241.01
Current Ratio1.741.74———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-865.6M$-865.6M$366.7M$-465.8M$-106.6M
Returns
ROE-11.4%-11.4%0.8%3.1%10.0%
Valuation
P/E——283.1598.7364.70
EV/EBITDA14.1414.1410.9523.1037.12
P/B1.461.462.263.056.46
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-2.4%-2.4%-12.3%134.9%—
EPS Growth——-69.0%-50.1%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -2.2%

Total return

-2.2%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

0.37 → n/d

Residual

-2.2%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-2.2%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.