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v0.1
HMY$17.70+0.54%
Fair $17.70+0.0%

HMY

Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited

Basic Materials / GoldNYSE

$17.70

+0.09 (+0.54%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $17.70Fund rank 34/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 67/B
F-Score: 8/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 24% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $2.3B · quality 66.7/100

Data gap 34/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 58/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

67/100

B

Piotroski

8/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists.
Thesis & Journal · HMYLocal privado en este navegador · Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$11.2B

P/E

11.2x

↓

EV/EBITDA

0.5x

↓

ROE

21.1%

↑

Gross Margin

23.0%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.06

↓
52-Week Range$18
$13$26

TradingView lightweight chart

HMY price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $17.70Periodo +183.3%
Fair value: $17.70

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2021–2024 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+13.7%

FCF CAGR

+21.6%

FCF margin

11.8%

FCF / Net income

0.84x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $61.38B · net income $8.59B · FCF $7.25B

2021-FY → 2024-FY

Gross margin

23.0%+8.1% pts

Operating margin

18.8%+7.1% pts

Net margin

14.0%+1.8% pts

FCF margin

11.8%+2.1% pts
MetricTTM
2024
2023
2022
2021
Income Statement
Revenue$61.38B$61.38B$49.27B$42.65B$41.73B
Net Income$8.59B$8.59B$4.82B$-1.05B$5.09B
EBITDA$17.21B$17.21B$11.05B$3.34B$10.92B
EPS13.6413.647.77-1.729.01
Gross Margin23.0%23.0%19.8%1.7%15.0%
Operating Margin18.8%18.8%16.2%-1.2%11.7%
Net Margin14.0%14.0%9.8%-2.5%12.2%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.060.060.180.120.12
Current Ratio0.540.54———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$7.25B$7.25B$2.31B$710.0M$4.04B
Returns
ROE21.1%21.1%13.9%-3.5%16.3%
Valuation
P/E11.2111.210.50—0.42
EV/EBITDA0.510.510.520.960.29
P/B0.270.270.070.070.07
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth24.6%24.6%15.5%2.2%—
EPS Growth75.5%75.5%551.7%-119.1%—
Dividend Yield2.3%2.3%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

-51.3%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$1.57

Spread vs growth

126.9%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

-32.6%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$1.90

Spread vs growth

108.1%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

-13.9%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$3.06

Spread vs growth

89.4%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +16.9%

Total return

+16.9%

Start / end P/E

2.0x → 1.3x

EPS bridge

7.77 → 13.64

Residual

-26.2%

EPS growth+75.5%
Multiple rerating-34.7%
Dividend+2.3%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-26.2%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.