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HRTG$21.38-1.38%
Fair $21.38+0.0%

HRTG

Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc.

Financial Services / Insurance - Property & CasualtyNYSE

$21.38

-0.30 (-1.38%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $21.38Fund rank 31/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 42/C
F-Score: 6/9

Book/ROE base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · P/B n/d

Book/ROE base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 100% · confianza 20%

Book/ROE escenarios

weak_data · book/share n/d · quality 82.0/100

Data gap 31/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 36/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

42/100

C

Piotroski

6/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

20/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 13Warnings: 0unknown: 13
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); financial Book/ROE targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · HRTGLocal privado en este navegador · Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$647M

P/E

3.3x

↓

EV/EBITDA

N/A

•

ROE

38.7%

↑

Gross Margin

N/A

•

Debt/Equity

0.20

↓
52-Week Range$21
$17$32

TradingView lightweight chart

HRTG price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $21.38Periodo +85.9%
Fair value: $21.38

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2013–2025 · 12 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+16.4%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

22.5%

FCF / Net income

0.89x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $774.4M · net income $195.6M · FCF $174.2M

2013-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

—— pts

Operating margin

—— pts

Net margin

25.3%-2.2% pts

FCF margin

22.5%— pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
Income Statement
Revenue$774.4M$774.4M$766.7M$670.7M$662.5M$631.6M$593.4M$511.3M$480.2M$406.6M$439.0M$394.8M$233.8M$124.8M
Net Income$195.6M$195.6M$61.5M$45.3M$-154.4M$-74.7M$9.3M$28.6M$27.2M$-1.1M$33.9M$92.5M$47.1M$34.2M
EBITDA—————$-59.6M$18.3M$60.0M$96.6M$57.3M$65.7M$151.6M$75.1M—
EPS6.326.322.011.73-5.86-2.690.330.981.04-0.041.143.051.822.36
Operating Margin—————-10.8%1.7%9.7%14.5%12.2%12.9%38.1%31.8%—
Net Margin25.3%25.3%8.0%6.8%-23.3%-11.8%1.6%5.6%5.7%-0.3%7.7%23.4%20.1%27.4%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.200.200.490.671.220.350.270.290.350.490.20———
Current Ratio0.770.77————————————
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$174.2M$174.2M$78.9M$60.5M$-46.6M$59.1M$169.5M$114.7M$94.1M$7.1M$81.3M———
Returns
ROE38.7%38.7%21.2%20.6%-117.8%-21.8%2.1%6.4%6.4%-0.3%9.5%25.9%18.5%42.8%
Valuation
P/E3.283.285.973.67——————————
P/B1.311.311.260.760.37—————————
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth1.0%1.0%14.3%1.2%—6.4%16.1%6.5%18.1%-7.4%11.2%68.8%87.3%—
EPS Growth214.4%214.4%16.2%129.5%—-915.2%-66.3%-5.8%2700.0%-103.5%-62.6%67.6%-22.9%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

-33.0%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$1.90

Spread vs growth

247.5%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

-18.3%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$2.30

Spread vs growth

232.8%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

-5.2%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$3.70

Spread vs growth

219.6%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -12.6%

Total return

-12.6%

Start / end P/E

12.2x → 3.4x

EPS bridge

2.01 → 6.32

Residual

-154.8%

EPS growth+214.4%
Multiple rerating-72.2%
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-154.8%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.