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MCO$465.22+2.64%
Fair $76.17-83.6%

MCO

Moody's Corporation

Financial Services / Financial Data & Stock ExchangesNYSE

$465.22

+11.97 (+2.64%)

Significantly Overvalued-83.6%Fair Value $76.17Fund rank 34/100 · PassSEC 19/19 yrs|
SA 42/C
F-Score: 8/9
Significantly Overvalued

Book/ROE base 3Y

$101.52

-39.8% CAGR · P/B 3.4x

Book/ROE base 5Y

$122.84

-23.4% base · -24.5% expected

Precio de entrada

$54.99

MOS 21% · confianza 82%

Book/ROE escenarios

audited · book/share $22.53 · quality 100.0/100

Pass 34/100
Bear 5Y$66.23-32.3%
Base 5Y$122.84-23.4%
Bull 5Y$145.32-20.8%
Return 0/100Downside 0/100Model quality 85/100Data QA 100/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

42/100

C

Piotroski

8/9

balance/quality

Valuation

0/100

-83.6% upside

5Y CAGR

-24.5%

0/100

Data QA

90/100

SEC 100%

Latest source: sec-companyfactsPeriods: 19Warnings: 1sec-companyfacts: 19
Generic DCF/FCF bypassed: financial balance-sheet sector valued with a sector-specific Book/ROE model. Estimated downside of 83.6% from current price
Thesis & Journal · MCOLocal privado en este navegador · Moody's Corporation
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$81.3B

P/E

32.9x

↑

EV/EBITDA

22.8x

↑

ROE

60.7%

↑

Gross Margin

74.4%

↑

Debt/Equity

1.73

↑
52-Week Range$465
$402$547

TradingView lightweight chart

MCO price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $465.22Periodo +4202.6%
Buy zone: $54.99Bear 5Y: $66.23Fair value: $76.17Base 5Y: $122.84Bull 5Y: $145.32

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2007–2025 · 18 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+7.1%

FCF CAGR

+6.7%

FCF margin

33.4%

FCF / Net income

1.05x

Latest source

SEC-backed

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $7.72B · net income $2.46B · FCF $2.58B

2007-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

74.4%— pts

Operating margin

43.4%-6.6% pts

Net margin

31.9%+0.8% pts

FCF margin

33.4%-2.3% pts
SEC-backed annual metrics active for 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010, 2009, 2008, 2007. Local SEC Companyfacts override Yahoo/FMP for audited annual line items; provider-only fields remain as fallback.
MetricTTM
2025SEC
2024SEC
2023SEC
2022SEC
2021SEC
2020SEC
2019SEC
2018SEC
2017SEC
2016SEC
2015SEC
2014SEC
2013SEC
2012SEC
2011SEC
2010SEC
2009SEC
2008SEC
2007SEC
Income Statement
Revenue$7.72B$7.72B$7.09B$5.92B$5.47B$6.22B$5.37B$4.83B$4.44B$4.20B$3.60B$3.48B$3.33B$2.97B$2.73B$2.28B$2.03B$1.80B$1.76B$2.26B
Net Income$2.46B$2.46B$2.06B$1.61B$1.37B$2.21B$1.78B$1.42B$1.31B$1.00B$266.6M$941.3M$988.7M$804.5M$690.0M$571.4M$507.8M$402.0M$457.6M$701.5M
EBITDA$3.89B$3.89B$3.47B$2.63B$2.34B$3.10B$2.61B$2.20B$2.06B$1.98B$777.6M$1.59B$1.51B$1.30B$1.14B$947.1M$822.7M$735.2M$794.9M$1.17B
EPS13.6713.6711.268.737.4411.789.397.426.745.151.364.634.613.603.052.492.151.691.872.58
Gross Margin74.4%74.4%72.6%71.5%70.5%———————————————
Operating Margin43.4%43.4%40.6%36.1%34.4%45.7%44.5%41.4%42.0%43.3%18.1%42.3%43.2%41.5%39.5%39.0%38.0%38.3%42.6%50.1%
Net Margin31.9%31.9%29.0%27.2%25.1%35.6%33.1%29.4%29.5%23.8%7.4%27.0%29.7%27.1%25.3%25.1%25.0%22.4%26.1%31.1%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity1.731.732.082.112.932.724.099.1212.3717.822.755.9813.566.244.507.783.971.980.75—
Current Ratio1.161.16——————————————————
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$2.58B$2.58B$2.52B$1.88B$1.19B$1.87B$2.04B$1.61B$1.37B$664.0M$1.14B$1.11B$944.0M$884.5M$778.1M$735.6M$574.3M$553.1M$455.3M$806.4M
Returns
ROE60.7%60.7%57.7%48.4%54.5%81.2%113.3%232.4%285.4%305.5%21.8%166.6%526.5%238.7%179.1%338.1%164.0%66.3%46.0%90.9%
Valuation
P/E32.8532.8539.8951.4560.3738.1347.8360.5366.6487.21330.2497.0097.42124.76147.25180.37208.89265.75240.17174.08
EV/EBITDA22.7922.7926.7728.0125.50———————————————
P/B19.9319.9323.0224.9132.9330.9554.19140.61190.22————297.86264.20—————
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth8.9%8.9%19.8%8.2%-12.1%15.8%11.2%8.7%5.7%16.6%3.4%4.5%12.2%8.9%19.7%12.2%13.1%2.4%-22.3%—
EPS Growth21.4%21.4%29.0%17.3%-36.8%25.5%26.5%10.1%30.9%278.7%-70.6%0.4%28.1%18.0%22.5%15.8%27.2%-9.6%-27.5%—
Dividend Yield0.9%0.9%——————————————————

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

44.5%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$41.28

Spread vs growth

-23.1%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

29.6%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$49.95

Spread vs growth

-8.2%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

19.4%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$80.44

Spread vs growth

2.0%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -2.0%

Total return

-2.0%

Start / end P/E

42.6x → 34.0x

EPS bridge

11.26 → 13.67

Residual

-4.3%

EPS growth+21.4%
Multiple rerating-20.1%
Dividend+0.9%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-4.3%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.