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v0.1
MEGAP.IS$2.47-1.20%
Fair $2.47+0.0%

MEGAP.IS

Mega Polietilen Köpük Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi

Basic Materials / Specialty ChemicalsIstanbul

$2.47

-0.03 (-1.20%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $2.47Fund rank 25/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 44/C
F-Score: 6/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 33% · confianza 20%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-167.8M · quality 45.7/100

Data gap 25/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 18/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

44/100

C

Piotroski

6/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

12/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 3Warnings: 0unknown: 3
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists.
Thesis & Journal · MEGAP.ISLocal privado en este navegador · Mega Polietilen Köpük Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$679M

P/E

2.5x

↓

EV/EBITDA

3.0x

↓

ROE

19.8%

↑

Gross Margin

18.5%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.58

↑
52-Week Range$2
$2$6

TradingView lightweight chart

MEGAP.IS price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $2.470Periodo +980.8%
Fair value: $2.470

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2021–2023 · 2 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+169.0%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-5.2%

FCF / Net income

-0.86x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $4.09B · net income $247.0M · FCF $-211.3M

2021-FY → 2023-FY

Gross margin

18.5%+10.3% pts

Operating margin

17.7%+13.9% pts

Net margin

6.0%+3.2% pts

FCF margin

-5.2%+24.5% pts
MetricTTM
2023
2022
2021
Income Statement
Revenue$4.09B$4.09B$2.95B$564.7M
Net Income$247.0M$247.0M$81.4M$16.0M
EBITDA$445.4M$445.4M$263.4M$45.7M
EPS0.990.990.380.07
Gross Margin18.5%18.5%14.2%8.2%
Operating Margin17.7%17.7%13.3%3.8%
Net Margin6.0%6.0%2.8%2.8%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.580.580.730.48
Current Ratio1.171.17——
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-211.3M$-211.3M$-117.6M$-167.8M
Returns
ROE19.8%19.8%9.9%6.5%
Valuation
P/E2.522.5211.0618.03
EV/EBITDA2.992.995.438.74
P/B0.490.491.101.16
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth38.5%38.5%422.5%—
EPS Growth161.2%161.2%413.6%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

-39.5%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$0.22

Spread vs growth

200.7%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

-23.2%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$0.27

Spread vs growth

184.4%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

-8.1%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$0.43

Spread vs growth

169.3%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -8.5%

Total return

-8.5%

Start / end P/E

7.1x → 2.5x

EPS bridge

0.38 → 0.99

Residual

-104.8%

EPS growth+161.2%
Multiple rerating-65.0%
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-104.8%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.