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v0.1
MERCN.IS$22.44+4.37%
Fair $22.44+0.0%

MERCN.IS

Mercan Kimya Sanayi Ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi

Basic Materials / Specialty ChemicalsIstanbul

$22.44

+0.94 (+4.37%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $22.44Fund rank 23/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 49/C
F-Score: 5/9
Declining Revenue

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 17%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-62.2M · quality 39.7/100

Data gap 23/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 6/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

49/100

C

Piotroski

5/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists. Revenue has declined for 2 consecutive years
Thesis & Journal · MERCN.ISLocal privado en este navegador · Mercan Kimya Sanayi Ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$4.3B

P/E

27.0x

↑

EV/EBITDA

8.4x

↓

ROE

5.8%

↑

Gross Margin

32.0%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.40

↑
52-Week Range$22
$14$53

TradingView lightweight chart

MERCN.IS price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $22.44Periodo +594.7%
Fair value: $22.44

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+0.7%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-2.1%

FCF / Net income

-0.44x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $2.90B · net income $141.9M · FCF $-62.2M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

32.0%+9.2% pts

Operating margin

16.1%+0.9% pts

Net margin

4.9%+1.3% pts

FCF margin

-2.1%+3.0% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$2.90B$2.90B$3.44B$3.48B$2.84B
Net Income$141.9M$141.9M$-78.4M$87.8M$101.5M
EBITDA$612.9M$612.9M$533.1M$570.1M$344.8M
EPS0.750.75-0.410.460.53
Gross Margin32.0%32.0%22.2%19.2%22.8%
Operating Margin16.1%16.1%9.3%9.2%15.2%
Net Margin4.9%4.9%-2.3%2.5%3.6%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.400.400.390.540.58
Current Ratio1.271.27———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-62.2M$-62.2M$618.1M$-351.3M$-145.3M
Returns
ROE5.8%5.8%-3.4%4.6%8.3%
Valuation
P/E27.0427.04—33.9326.31
EV/EBITDA8.358.356.146.709.24
P/B1.751.751.081.572.19
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-15.8%-15.8%-1.1%22.6%—
EPS Growth281.0%281.0%-189.5%-13.7%—
Dividend Yield1.0%1.0%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

38.8%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.99

Spread vs growth

242.3%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

26.4%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$2.41

Spread vs growth

254.6%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

17.9%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$3.88

Spread vs growth

263.1%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +48.1%

Total return

+48.1%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

-0.41 → 0.75

Residual

+47.1%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+1.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+47.1%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.