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NOAH$10.65+0.76%
Fair $10.65+0.0%

NOAH

Noah Holdings Limited

Financial Services / Asset ManagementNYSE

$10.65

+0.08 (+0.76%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $10.65Fund rank 36/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 57/C
F-Score: 8/9

Book/ROE base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · P/B n/d

Book/ROE base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 100% · confianza 20%

Book/ROE escenarios

weak_data · book/share n/d · quality 31.0/100

Data gap 36/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 72/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

57/100

C

Piotroski

8/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific holding-company NAV/SOTP model required: targets are disabled until look-through holdings, debt and discount data exists.
Thesis & Journal · NOAHLocal privado en este navegador · Noah Holdings Limited
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$698M

P/E

9.4x

↓

EV/EBITDA

-3.8x

↓

ROE

5.7%

↓

Gross Margin

53.4%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.01

↓
52-Week Range$11
$10$13

TradingView lightweight chart

NOAH price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $10.65Periodo -33.4%
Fair value: $10.65

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-5.6%

FCF CAGR

+13.9%

FCF margin

32.3%

FCF / Net income

1.51x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $2.61B · net income $558.9M · FCF $842.5M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

53.4%-0.1% pts

Operating margin

29.8%-5.4% pts

Net margin

21.4%-10.1% pts

FCF margin

32.3%+13.9% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$2.61B$2.61B$2.60B$3.29B$3.10B
Net Income$558.9M$558.9M$475.4M$1.01B$976.6M
EBITDA$933.6M$933.6M$790.6M$1.26B$1.24B
EPS7.957.956.7514.5514.28
Gross Margin53.4%53.4%48.1%55.8%53.5%
Operating Margin29.8%29.8%24.4%33.3%35.1%
Net Margin21.4%21.4%18.3%30.6%31.5%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.010.010.010.010.02
Current Ratio4.464.46———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$842.5M$842.5M$305.2M$1.16B$570.2M
Returns
ROE5.7%5.7%4.8%9.8%10.4%
Valuation
P/E9.429.421.630.891.16
EV/EBITDA-3.76-3.76-3.70-3.31-2.50
P/B0.080.080.080.090.12
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth0.4%0.4%-21.1%6.3%—
EPS Growth17.8%17.8%-53.6%1.9%—
Dividend Yield5.7%5.7%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

-50.8%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$0.95

Spread vs growth

68.6%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

-32.1%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$1.14

Spread vs growth

49.9%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

-13.6%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$1.84

Spread vs growth

31.4%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +9.0%

Total return

+9.0%

Start / end P/E

1.5x → 1.3x

EPS bridge

6.75 → 7.95

Residual

-2.2%

EPS growth+17.8%
Multiple rerating-12.3%
Dividend+5.7%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-2.2%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.