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NPGF.JK$61.00-6.15%
Fair $61.00+0.0%

NPGF.JK

PT Nusa Palapa Gemilang Tbk

Basic Materials / Agricultural InputsJakartaID

$61.00

-4.00 (-6.15%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $61.00Fund rank 23/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 31/D
F-Score: 3/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 33% · confianza 22%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-39.3B · quality 39.7/100

Data gap 23/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 2/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

31/100

D

Piotroski

3/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

20/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: eodhdPeriods: 8Warnings: 1eodhd: 8
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists. ROE is 1.3%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · NPGF.JKLocal privado en este navegador · PT Nusa Palapa Gemilang Tbk
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$197.7B

P/E

N/A

•

EV/EBITDA

N/A

•

ROE

1.3%

↑

Gross Margin

24.4%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.31

↑
52-Week Range$61
$27$88

TradingView lightweight chart

NPGF.JK price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $61.00Periodo -54.8%
Fair value: $61.00

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2017–2024 · 7 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-2.8%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-23.4%

FCF / Net income

-13.17x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $168.01B · net income $2.99B · FCF $-39.31B

2017-FY → 2024-FY

Gross margin

24.4%-4.8% pts

Operating margin

6.2%-4.1% pts

Net margin

1.8%-0.7% pts

FCF margin

-23.4%-23.1% pts
MetricTTM
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
Income Statement
Revenue$168.01B$168.01B$52.29B$154.39B$352.35B$335.06B$241.40B$226.40B$204.28B
Net Income$2.99B$2.99B$60.13B$-38.25B$4.52B$5.35B$4.94B$5.96B$5.08B
EBITDA$13.54B$13.54B$80.62B$-24.90B$30.08B$32.85B$26.86B$27.49B$24.16B
EPS0.920.9218.56-11.910.551.651.520.040.03
Gross Margin24.4%24.4%3.2%-1.0%16.3%24.0%25.6%26.5%29.2%
Operating Margin6.2%6.2%-61.3%-21.7%6.2%7.5%9.6%10.7%10.3%
Net Margin1.8%1.8%115.0%-24.8%1.3%1.6%2.0%2.6%2.5%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.310.310.120.920.661.041.132.432.59
Current Ratio2.962.965.180.831.301.381.311.121.17
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-39.31B$-39.31B$-118.29B$-24.69B$-55.90B$7.45B$-63.07B$-12.07B$-626.1M
Returns
ROE1.3%1.3%25.9%-22.2%2.1%3.7%3.5%8.8%8.2%
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth221.3%221.3%-66.1%-56.2%5.2%38.8%6.6%10.8%—
EPS Growth-95.0%-95.0%255.8%-2258.6%-66.6%8.4%4045.8%17.2%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

80.4%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$5.41

Spread vs growth

-175.5%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

48.0%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$6.55

Spread vs growth

-143.1%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

27.6%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$10.55

Spread vs growth

-122.6%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +110.3%

Total return

+110.3%

Start / end P/E

1.6x → 66.2x

EPS bridge

18.56 → 0.92

Residual

-3931.7%

EPS growth-95.0%
Multiple rerating+4137.1%
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-3931.7%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.