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v0.1
OSG$5.25-4.20%
Fair $5.25+0.0%

OSG

Octave Specialty Group, Inc.

Financial Services / Insurance - SpecialtyNYSE

$5.25

-0.23 (-4.20%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $5.25Fund rank 28/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 27/D
F-Score: 4/9
Low Profitability

Book/ROE base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · P/B n/d

Book/ROE base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 100% · confianza 20%

Book/ROE escenarios

weak_data · book/share n/d · quality 0.0/100

Data gap 28/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 22/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

27/100

D

Piotroski

4/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

20/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 13Warnings: 1unknown: 13
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); financial Book/ROE targets are disabled until manually verified. ROE is -36.6%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · OSGLocal privado en este navegador · Octave Specialty Group, Inc.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$236M

P/E

N/A

•

EV/EBITDA

N/A

•

ROE

-36.6%

↓

Gross Margin

N/A

•

Debt/Equity

0.16

↓
52-Week Range$5
$4$10

TradingView lightweight chart

OSG price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $5.480Periodo -72.6%
Fair value: $5.250

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2010–2025 · 15 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-3.6%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-21.0%

FCF / Net income

0.20x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $248.6M · net income $-261.7M · FCF $-52.3M

2010-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

—— pts

Operating margin

—— pts

Net margin

-105.2%+68.2% pts

FCF margin

-21.0%— pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2013
2012
2011
2010
Income Statement
Revenue$248.6M$248.6M$235.3M$124.7M$53.6M$156.0M$496.0M$511.0M$622.0M$506.8M—$685.7M$295.8M$434.1M
Net Income$-261.7M$-261.7M$-556.4M$3.6M$521.2M$-437.0M$-216.0M$186.0M$-329.0M$74.8M—$-256.7M$-1.96B$-753.2M
EPS-5.93-5.93-11.960.1811.31-9.47-4.693.99-7.251.64—-0.85-6.48-2.56
Net Margin-105.2%-105.2%-236.5%2.9%972.3%-280.1%-43.5%36.4%-52.9%14.8%—-37.4%-662.8%-173.5%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.160.160.19—2.992.541.911.840.72——-0.04-0.06-0.10
Current Ratio1.001.00————————————
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-52.3M$-52.3M$762000.00$36.9M$70.4M—————————
Returns
ROE-36.6%-36.6%-69.7%0.3%41.6%-40.5%-14.6%11.7%-23.8%——6.6%51.4%37.5%
Valuation
P/E———89.941.50—————————
P/B0.350.350.730.540.63—————————
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth5.7%5.7%88.6%132.7%—-68.5%-2.9%-17.8%22.7%——131.8%-31.9%—
EPS Growth50.4%50.4%-6744.4%-98.4%—-101.9%-217.5%155.0%-542.1%——86.9%-153.1%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -33.0%

Total return

-33.0%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

-11.96 → -5.93

Residual

-33.0%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-33.0%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.