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RIO.AX$188.51+1.55%
Fair $188.51+0.0%

RIO.AX

Rio Tinto Group

Basic Materials / Other Industrial Metals & MiningASX

$188.51

+2.88 (+1.55%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $188.51Fund rank 34/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 52/C
F-Score: 4/9
Margin Compression

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 24% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $6.0B · quality 71.7/100

Data gap 34/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 70/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

52/100

C

Piotroski

4/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists. Operating margin has declined for 3 consecutive years
Thesis & Journal · RIO.AXLocal privado en este navegador · Rio Tinto Group
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$306.5B

P/E

22.3x

↑

EV/EBITDA

14.2x

↑

ROE

16.0%

↑

Gross Margin

57.4%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.38

↑
52-Week Range$189
$101$193

TradingView lightweight chart

RIO.AX price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $188.51Periodo +630.5%
Fair value: $188.51

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+1.2%

FCF CAGR

-21.7%

FCF margin

7.8%

FCF / Net income

0.45x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $57.64B · net income $9.97B · FCF $4.50B

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

57.4%-4.3% pts

Operating margin

26.8%-8.1% pts

Net margin

17.3%-5.0% pts

FCF margin

7.8%-9.1% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$57.64B$57.64B$53.66B$54.04B$55.55B
Net Income$9.97B$9.97B$11.55B$10.06B$12.39B
EBITDA$22.97B$22.97B$23.16B$21.08B$25.54B
EPS6.086.087.076.177.62
Gross Margin57.4%57.4%56.4%60.0%61.7%
Operating Margin26.8%26.8%27.6%29.1%34.9%
Net Margin17.3%17.3%21.5%18.6%22.3%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.380.380.250.260.24
Current Ratio1.451.45———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$4.50B$4.50B$5.98B$8.07B$9.38B
Returns
ROE16.0%16.0%20.9%18.4%24.5%
Valuation
P/E22.2822.2816.8321.4715.70
EV/EBITDA14.1614.168.7010.517.84
P/B4.964.963.523.963.83
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth7.4%7.4%-0.7%-2.7%—
EPS Growth-14.0%-14.0%14.7%-19.1%—
Dividend Yield3.1%3.1%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

40.1%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$16.73

Spread vs growth

-54.1%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

27.2%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$20.24

Spread vs growth

-41.1%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

18.3%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$32.60

Spread vs growth

-32.2%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +75.0%

Total return

+75.0%

Start / end P/E

15.5x → 31.0x

EPS bridge

7.07 → 6.08

Residual

-13.9%

EPS growth-14.0%
Multiple rerating+99.8%
Dividend+3.1%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-13.9%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.