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v0.1
SAFT$69.19-1.40%
Fair $69.19+0.0%

SAFT

Safety Insurance Group, Inc.

Financial Services / Insurance - Property & CasualtyNasdaqGS

$69.19

-0.98 (-1.40%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $69.19Fund rank 37/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 41/C
F-Score: 6/9

Book/ROE base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · P/B n/d

Book/ROE base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 100% · confianza 20%

Book/ROE escenarios

weak_data · book/share n/d · quality 34.0/100

Data gap 37/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 70/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

41/100

C

Piotroski

6/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

20/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 17Warnings: 0unknown: 17
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); financial Book/ROE targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · SAFTLocal privado en este navegador · Safety Insurance Group, Inc.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$1.0B

P/E

16.4x

↑

EV/EBITDA

N/A

•

ROE

11.1%

↑

Gross Margin

N/A

•

Debt/Equity

0.07

↓
52-Week Range$69
$67$83

TradingView lightweight chart

SAFT price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $69.19Periodo +436.4%
Fair value: $69.19

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2009–2025 · 16 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+4.8%

FCF CAGR

+7.1%

FCF margin

15.3%

FCF / Net income

1.93x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $1.25B · net income $99.3M · FCF $192.0M

2009-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

—— pts

Operating margin

—— pts

Net margin

7.9%-1.2% pts

FCF margin

15.3%+4.5% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
Income Statement
Revenue$1.25B$1.25B$1.11B$925.9M$785.1M$884.9M$846.2M$877.8M$836.5M$839.1M$819.8M$798.0M$778.8M$745.3M$703.9M$660.2M$612.7M$592.0M
Net Income$99.3M$99.3M$70.7M$18.9M$46.6M$130.7M$138.2M$99.6M$83.2M$62.4M$64.6M$-13.9M$59.4M$61.4M$58.1M$13.7M$56.3M$54.2M
EPS6.706.704.781.283.158.809.186.465.434.104.27-0.933.913.983.800.903.743.48
Net Margin7.9%7.9%6.4%2.0%5.9%14.8%16.3%11.3%9.9%7.4%7.9%-1.7%7.6%8.2%8.3%2.1%9.2%9.1%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.070.070.060.060.07—————————————
Current Ratio0.370.37————————————————
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$192.0M$192.0M$124.3M$50.3M$42.2M$133.2M$99.5M$102.9M$116.5M$76.1M$93.9M$18.9M——$100.1M$35.1M$48.8M$64.1M
Returns
ROE11.1%11.1%8.5%2.3%5.7%14.1%15.6%12.3%11.6%8.9%9.6%-2.1%8.4%8.8%8.4%2.1%8.6%—
Valuation
P/E16.3616.3617.2558.8727.38—————————————
P/B1.141.141.461.381.56—————————————
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth13.0%13.0%19.8%17.9%—4.6%-3.6%4.9%-0.3%2.4%2.7%2.5%4.5%5.9%6.6%7.7%3.5%—
EPS Growth40.2%40.2%273.4%-59.4%—-4.1%42.1%19.0%32.4%-4.0%559.1%-123.8%-1.8%4.7%322.2%-75.9%7.5%—
Dividend Yield5.3%5.3%————————————————

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

-2.9%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$6.14

Spread vs growth

43.0%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

2.1%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$7.43

Spread vs growth

38.1%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

6.0%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$11.96

Spread vs growth

34.2%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -10.5%

Total return

-10.5%

Start / end P/E

17.2x → 10.3x

EPS bridge

4.78 → 6.70

Residual

-16.0%

EPS growth+40.2%
Multiple rerating-39.9%
Dividend+5.3%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-16.0%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.