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v0.1
SEED$1.12+0.45%
Fair $1.12+0.0%

SEED

Origin Agritech Limited

Basic Materials / Agricultural InputsNasdaqCM

$1.12

+0.00 (+0.45%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $1.12Fund rank 25/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 29/D
F-Score: 3/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 19%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-20.0M · quality 50.3/100

Data gap 25/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 13/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

29/100

D

Piotroski

3/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists. ROE is 2.3%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · SEEDLocal privado en este navegador · Origin Agritech Limited
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$14M

P/E

N/A

•

EV/EBITDA

N/A

•

ROE

228.5%

↑

Gross Margin

7.0%

↓

Debt/Equity

-1.12

↓
52-Week Range$1
$1$2

TradingView lightweight chart

SEED price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $1.125Periodo -97.6%
Fair value: $1.118

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+20.2%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-39.9%

FCF / Net income

0.68x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $91.3M · net income $-53.3M · FCF $-36.4M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

7.0%-23.8% pts

Operating margin

-58.9%-34.4% pts

Net margin

-58.4%-46.5% pts

FCF margin

-39.9%-44.9% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$91.3M$91.3M$113.4M$93.3M$52.6M
Net Income$-53.3M$-53.3M$20.7M$55.3M$-6.3M
EBITDA$-52.3M$-52.3M$23.1M$67.8M$14.4M
EPS——3.208.43-1.09
Gross Margin7.0%7.0%14.2%18.5%30.8%
Operating Margin-58.9%-58.9%-32.0%-13.7%-24.5%
Net Margin-58.4%-58.4%18.3%59.3%-11.9%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity-1.12-1.12-0.16-0.00-1.04
Current Ratio0.390.39———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-36.4M$-36.4M$-20.0M$-17.7M$2.7M
Returns
ROE228.5%228.5%-66.2%-96.4%4.7%
Valuation
P/E——0.970.38—
EV/EBITDA——0.72-0.0412.28
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-19.5%-19.5%21.5%77.5%—
EPS Growth——-62.0%873.4%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +0.4%

Total return

+0.4%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

3.20 → n/d

Residual

+0.4%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+0.4%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.