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TWFG$19.20+2.29%
Fair $19.20+0.0%

TWFG

TWFG, Inc.

Financial Services / Insurance BrokersNasdaqGS

$19.20

+0.43 (+2.29%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $19.20Fund rank 33/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 46/C
F-Score: 7/9

Book/ROE base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · P/B n/d

Book/ROE base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 100% · confianza 20%

Book/ROE escenarios

weak_data · book/share n/d · quality 27.0/100

Data gap 33/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 44/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

46/100

C

Piotroski

7/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); financial Book/ROE targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · TWFGLocal privado en este navegador · TWFG, Inc.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$250M

P/E

34.3x

↑

EV/EBITDA

2.2x

↓

ROE

9.6%

↑

Gross Margin

26.8%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.10

↓
52-Week Range$19
$17$37

TradingView lightweight chart

TWFG price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $19.20Periodo -12.8%
Fair value: $19.20

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+16.5%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-3.7%

FCF / Net income

-1.10x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $234.0M · net income $8.0M · FCF $-8.8M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

26.8%+6.1% pts

Operating margin

10.2%-2.7% pts

Net margin

3.4%— pts

FCF margin

-3.7%-12.9% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$234.0M$234.0M$193.7M$167.0M$147.8M
Net Income$8.0M$8.0M$2.7M——
EBITDA$63.1M$63.1M$44.3M$31.1M$27.0M
EPS——0.19——
Gross Margin26.8%26.8%24.0%21.7%20.7%
Operating Margin10.2%10.2%9.9%12.8%12.9%
Net Margin3.4%3.4%1.4%——
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.100.100.141.670.23
Current Ratio3.423.42———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-8.8M$-8.8M$15.4M$14.5M$13.5M
Returns
ROE9.6%9.6%3.7%——
Valuation
P/E34.2934.29156.32——
EV/EBITDA2.232.235.85——
P/B3.463.466.02——
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth20.8%20.8%16.0%13.0%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -45.2%

Total return

-45.2%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

0.19 → n/d

Residual

-45.2%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-45.2%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.