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VALE$16.25+0.00%
Fair $16.25+0.0%

VALE

Vale S.A.

Basic Materials / Other Industrial Metals & MiningNYSE

$16.25

+0.00 (+0.00%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $16.25Fund rank 34/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 40/C
F-Score: 3/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 25% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $2.9B · quality 69.3/100

Data gap 34/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 65/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

40/100

C

Piotroski

3/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists.
Thesis & Journal · VALELocal privado en este navegador · Vale S.A.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$69.3B

P/E

24.6x

↑

EV/EBITDA

8.6x

↓

ROE

7.0%

↑

Gross Margin

35.0%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.65

↑
52-Week Range$16
$9$18

TradingView lightweight chart

VALE price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $16.25Periodo +622.2%
Fair value: $16.25

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-4.3%

FCF CAGR

-22.6%

FCF margin

7.3%

FCF / Net income

1.19x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $38.40B · net income $2.35B · FCF $2.79B

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

35.0%-10.2% pts

Operating margin

29.5%-11.1% pts

Net margin

6.1%-36.7% pts

FCF margin

7.3%-6.5% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$38.40B$38.40B$38.06B$41.78B$43.84B
Net Income$2.35B$2.35B$6.17B$7.98B$18.79B
EBITDA$9.80B$9.80B$11.09B$15.59B$23.90B
EPS0.550.551.441.834.05
Gross Margin35.0%35.0%36.2%42.3%45.2%
Operating Margin29.5%29.5%29.2%38.0%40.6%
Net Margin6.1%6.1%16.2%19.1%42.9%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.650.650.530.430.43
Current Ratio1.241.24———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$2.79B$2.79B$2.92B$7.25B$6.04B
Returns
ROE7.0%7.0%18.5%20.2%52.4%
Valuation
P/E24.6224.625.998.364.36
EV/EBITDA8.568.564.485.133.88
P/B2.072.071.111.692.29
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth0.9%0.9%-8.9%-4.7%—
EPS Growth-61.8%-61.8%-21.3%-54.8%—
Dividend Yield7.7%7.7%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

37.9%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.44

Spread vs growth

-99.7%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

26.0%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.74

Spread vs growth

-87.8%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

17.7%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$2.81

Spread vs growth

-79.5%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +85.7%

Total return

+85.7%

Start / end P/E

6.3x → 29.5x

EPS bridge

1.44 → 0.55

Residual

-226.2%

EPS growth-61.8%
Multiple rerating+366.0%
Dividend+7.7%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-226.2%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.