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v0.1
VEL$17.29-1.20%
Fair $17.29+0.0%

VEL

Velocity Financial, Inc.

Financial Services / Mortgage FinanceNYSE

$17.29

-0.21 (-1.20%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $17.29Fund rank 27/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 39/D
F-Score: 5/9
High Debt

Book/ROE base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · P/B n/d

Book/ROE base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 100% · confianza 20%

Book/ROE escenarios

weak_data · book/share n/d · quality 48.0/100

Data gap 27/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 67/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

39/100

D

Piotroski

5/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

20/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 8Warnings: 1unknown: 8
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); financial Book/ROE targets are disabled until manually verified. Debt-to-Equity ratio is 9.72, above the 2.0 threshold
Thesis & Journal · VELLocal privado en este navegador · Velocity Financial, Inc.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$679M

P/E

6.2x

↓

EV/EBITDA

N/A

•

ROE

15.6%

↑

Gross Margin

N/A

•

Debt/Equity

9.72

↑
52-Week Range$17
$16$21

TradingView lightweight chart

VEL price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $17.29Periodo +28.0%
Fair value: $17.29

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2018–2025 · 7 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

—

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

5.3%

FCF / Net income

0.16x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $311.5M · net income $105.1M · FCF $16.6M

2018-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

—— pts

Operating margin

—— pts

Net margin

33.7%— pts

FCF margin

5.3%— pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
Income Statement
Revenue$311.5M$311.5M$211.7M$155.5M$91.2M————
Net Income$105.1M$105.1M$68.4M$52.3M$32.2M$29.2M$17.8M$17.3M$7.6M
EPS2.752.751.911.520.940.86-1.55——
Net Margin33.7%33.7%32.3%33.6%35.3%————
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity9.729.729.408.868.70————
Current Ratio27.3527.35———————
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$16.6M$16.6M$32.7M$48.7M$48.3M$57.5M$54.2M$-106.2M$-73.8M
Returns
ROE15.6%15.6%13.2%12.1%8.5%8.6%8.1%11.3%5.6%
Valuation
P/E6.156.1510.0110.1510.66————
P/B0.980.981.321.230.91————
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth47.1%47.1%36.2%70.5%—————
EPS Growth44.0%44.0%25.7%61.7%—155.5%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

-17.7%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$1.53

Spread vs growth

61.7%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

-7.6%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$1.86

Spread vs growth

51.5%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

0.8%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$2.99

Spread vs growth

43.1%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +3.2%

Total return

+3.2%

Start / end P/E

8.8x → 6.3x

EPS bridge

1.91 → 2.75

Residual

-12.4%

EPS growth+44.0%
Multiple rerating-28.3%
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-12.4%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.