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VSL.AX$5.89+6.13%
Fair $5.89+0.0%

VSL.AX

Vulcan Steel Limited

Basic Materials / SteelASX

$5.89

+0.34 (+6.13%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $5.89Fund rank 26/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 30/D
F-Score: 2/9
High DebtDeclining RevenueMargin Compression

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 33% · confianza 18%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $122.5M · quality 40.3/100

Data gap 26/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 52/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

30/100

D

Piotroski

2/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 3unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists. Debt-to-Equity ratio is 3.21, above the 2.0 threshold Revenue has declined for 2 consecutive years Operating margin has declined for 3 consecutive years
Thesis & Journal · VSL.AXLocal privado en este navegador · Vulcan Steel Limited
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$863M

P/E

65.4x

↑

EV/EBITDA

10.5x

↓

ROE

9.3%

↑

Gross Margin

34.2%

↑

Debt/Equity

3.21

↑
52-Week Range$6
$5$8

TradingView lightweight chart

VSL.AX price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $5.890Periodo -17.6%
Fair value: $5.890

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-0.8%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

8.8%

FCF / Net income

5.32x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $948.2M · net income $15.7M · FCF $83.6M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

34.2%-5.7% pts

Operating margin

2.9%-17.3% pts

Net margin

1.7%-11.1% pts

FCF margin

8.8%+8.8% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$948.2M$948.2M$1.06B$1.24B$972.7M
Net Income$15.7M$15.7M$40.0M$87.9M$124.0M
EBITDA$124.9M$124.9M$163.0M$192.4M$212.9M
EPS0.120.120.300.660.93
Gross Margin34.2%34.2%35.2%35.7%40.0%
Operating Margin2.9%2.9%6.1%13.9%20.3%
Net Margin1.7%1.7%3.8%7.1%12.7%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity3.213.213.433.492.23
Current Ratio2.412.41———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$83.6M$83.6M$142.0M$122.5M$-63000.00
Returns
ROE9.3%9.3%23.2%47.3%66.9%
Valuation
P/E65.4465.4421.7112.748.65
EV/EBITDA10.5010.508.729.106.84
P/B4.624.624.986.035.77
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-10.9%-10.9%-14.5%28.0%—
EPS Growth-60.0%-60.0%-55.2%-28.7%—
Dividend Yield0.9%0.9%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

63.8%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.52

Spread vs growth

-123.8%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

39.7%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.63

Spread vs growth

-99.7%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

24.0%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.02

Spread vs growth

-84.0%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -12.0%

Total return

-12.0%

Start / end P/E

22.8x → 49.6x

EPS bridge

0.30 → 0.12

Residual

-70.7%

EPS growth-60.0%
Multiple rerating+117.8%
Dividend+0.9%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-70.7%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.